Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% โอกาส
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ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,955วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,955วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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