No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments. Catalogued NEOs show only distant, safe approaches, while recent fireballs—including sub-kiloton events over Ohio and elsewhere—remain well below the energy threshold. Historical bolide records indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt roughly once per year on average, yet refined orbits and the absence of new high-risk detections have kept the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 25%. Resolution depends on the JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository confirming any qualifying natural event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
24% โอกาส
$313,828 ปริมาณ
$313,828 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
24% โอกาส
$313,828 ปริมาณ
$313,828 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments. Catalogued NEOs show only distant, safe approaches, while recent fireballs—including sub-kiloton events over Ohio and elsewhere—remain well below the energy threshold. Historical bolide records indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt roughly once per year on average, yet refined orbits and the absence of new high-risk detections have kept the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 25%. Resolution depends on the JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository confirming any qualifying natural event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$313,828วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments. Catalogued NEOs show only distant, safe approaches, while recent fireballs—including sub-kiloton events over Ohio and elsewhere—remain well below the energy threshold. Historical bolide records indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt roughly once per year on average, yet refined orbits and the absence of new high-risk detections have kept the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 25%. Resolution depends on the JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository confirming any qualifying natural event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$313,828วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments. Catalogued NEOs show only distant, safe approaches, while recent fireballs—including sub-kiloton events over Ohio and elsewhere—remain well below the energy threshold. Historical bolide records indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt roughly once per year on average, yet refined orbits and the absence of new high-risk detections have kept the market-implied probability of “Yes” near 25%. Resolution depends on the JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository confirming any qualifying natural event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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