Trader consensus on an 86% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of the four resolution triggers and their continued absence through the first eight-plus months of the year. Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls average fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes and VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions each occur globally at rates well below 15% annually. A 10 kt+ meteor strike remains possible but has not materialized. With limited time remaining and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, updated forecasts reinforce the current market positioning absent sudden intensification or new seismic/volcanic signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
14% โอกาส
$246,227 ปริมาณ
$246,227 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
14% โอกาส
$246,227 ปริมาณ
$246,227 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on an 86% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of the four resolution triggers and their continued absence through the first eight-plus months of the year. Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls average fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes and VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions each occur globally at rates well below 15% annually. A 10 kt+ meteor strike remains possible but has not materialized. With limited time remaining and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, updated forecasts reinforce the current market positioning absent sudden intensification or new seismic/volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$246,227วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on an 86% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of the four resolution triggers and their continued absence through the first eight-plus months of the year. Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls average fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes and VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions each occur globally at rates well below 15% annually. A 10 kt+ meteor strike remains possible but has not materialized. With limited time remaining and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, updated forecasts reinforce the current market positioning absent sudden intensification or new seismic/volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$246,227วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 86% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the low historical frequency of the four resolution triggers and their continued absence through the first eight-plus months of the year. Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls average fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes and VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions each occur globally at rates well below 15% annually. A 10 kt+ meteor strike remains possible but has not materialized. With limited time remaining and no active alerts from NOAA, USGS, or Smithsonian monitoring, updated forecasts reinforce the current market positioning absent sudden intensification or new seismic/volcanic signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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