The 83.5% implied probability for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects trader consensus that none of the enumerated resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September. These include a change in U.S. presidential leadership, Chinese military action against Taiwan, leadership shifts in China or Iran, a full U.S. invasion of Iran or regime collapse there, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, Russian incursion into NATO territory, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran strikes and related regional exchanges have not crossed those thresholds, while scheduled U.S. midterms, various national elections, and trade disputes remain within contained parameters. Market pricing incorporates the low historical base rate of simultaneous major disruptions aligning with the criteria before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ใช่
84% โอกาส
$786,185 ปริมาณ
$786,185 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
ใช่
84% โอกาส
$786,185 ปริมาณ
$786,185 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfThe 83.5% implied probability for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects trader consensus that none of the enumerated resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September. These include a change in U.S. presidential leadership, Chinese military action against Taiwan, leadership shifts in China or Iran, a full U.S. invasion of Iran or regime collapse there, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, Russian incursion into NATO territory, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran strikes and related regional exchanges have not crossed those thresholds, while scheduled U.S. midterms, various national elections, and trade disputes remain within contained parameters. Market pricing incorporates the low historical base rate of simultaneous major disruptions aligning with the criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$786,185วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfThe 83.5% implied probability for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects trader consensus that none of the enumerated resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September. These include a change in U.S. presidential leadership, Chinese military action against Taiwan, leadership shifts in China or Iran, a full U.S. invasion of Iran or regime collapse there, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, Russian incursion into NATO territory, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran strikes and related regional exchanges have not crossed those thresholds, while scheduled U.S. midterms, various national elections, and trade disputes remain within contained parameters. Market pricing incorporates the low historical base rate of simultaneous major disruptions aligning with the criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$786,185วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 83.5% implied probability for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects trader consensus that none of the enumerated resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September. These include a change in U.S. presidential leadership, Chinese military action against Taiwan, leadership shifts in China or Iran, a full U.S. invasion of Iran or regime collapse there, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, Russian incursion into NATO territory, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran strikes and related regional exchanges have not crossed those thresholds, while scheduled U.S. midterms, various national elections, and trade disputes remain within contained parameters. Market pricing incorporates the low historical base rate of simultaneous major disruptions aligning with the criteria before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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