Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and supporting satellite and surface datasets indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures reached approximately 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with trader consensus. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.5 °C, drove anomalous tropical warmth and elevated sea surface temperatures that peaked near record levels in late August. This aligns with historical patterns where strong El Niño phases amplify anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above recent baselines, while land-ocean contrasts and measurement methodologies across agencies produce minor variations. Final NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth reports expected in coming weeks could shift resolution if revisions exceed 0.05 °C or if model adjustments alter the central estimate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.6%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,696 ปริมาณ
$20,696 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.6%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,696 ปริมาณ
$20,696 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 ปริมาณ
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,671 ปริมาณ
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,247 ปริมาณ
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and supporting satellite and surface datasets indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures reached approximately 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with trader consensus. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.5 °C, drove anomalous tropical warmth and elevated sea surface temperatures that peaked near record levels in late August. This aligns with historical patterns where strong El Niño phases amplify anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above recent baselines, while land-ocean contrasts and measurement methodologies across agencies produce minor variations. Final NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth reports expected in coming weeks could shift resolution if revisions exceed 0.05 °C or if model adjustments alter the central estimate.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,696วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and supporting satellite and surface datasets indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures reached approximately 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with trader consensus. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.5 °C, drove anomalous tropical warmth and elevated sea surface temperatures that peaked near record levels in late August. This aligns with historical patterns where strong El Niño phases amplify anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above recent baselines, while land-ocean contrasts and measurement methodologies across agencies produce minor variations. Final NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth reports expected in coming weeks could shift resolution if revisions exceed 0.05 °C or if model adjustments alter the central estimate.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,696วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and supporting satellite and surface datasets indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures reached approximately 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with trader consensus. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.5 °C, drove anomalous tropical warmth and elevated sea surface temperatures that peaked near record levels in late August. This aligns with historical patterns where strong El Niño phases amplify anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above recent baselines, while land-ocean contrasts and measurement methodologies across agencies produce minor variations. Final NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth reports expected in coming weeks could shift resolution if revisions exceed 0.05 °C or if model adjustments alter the central estimate.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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