Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, where Chuong Vo led challengers with 15.3%. The district carries a modest Democratic lean following redistricting, and forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 contest as Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge and incumbency provide structural advantages in a seat that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at over 90% probability for a Democratic outcome reflects these factors, though shifts in national midterm dynamics, voter turnout among key Orange County blocs, or late-campaign developments could narrow the margin before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$35,629 ปริมาณ
$35,629 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$35,629 ปริมาณ
$35,629 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,878 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$15,751 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, where Chuong Vo led challengers with 15.3%. The district carries a modest Democratic lean following redistricting, and forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 contest as Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge and incumbency provide structural advantages in a seat that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at over 90% probability for a Democratic outcome reflects these factors, though shifts in national midterm dynamics, voter turnout among key Orange County blocs, or late-campaign developments could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,629วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, where Chuong Vo led challengers with 15.3%. The district carries a modest Democratic lean following redistricting, and forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 contest as Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge and incumbency provide structural advantages in a seat that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at over 90% probability for a Democratic outcome reflects these factors, though shifts in national midterm dynamics, voter turnout among key Orange County blocs, or late-campaign developments could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,629วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote against a divided Republican field, where Chuong Vo led challengers with 15.3%. The district carries a modest Democratic lean following redistricting, and forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the November 3 contest as Lean or Likely Democratic. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge and incumbency provide structural advantages in a seat that favored Democrats in recent cycles. Trader consensus at over 90% probability for a Democratic outcome reflects these factors, though shifts in national midterm dynamics, voter turnout among key Orange County blocs, or late-campaign developments could narrow the margin before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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