Raphaël Glucksmann leads the first-round outcome in this two-round electronic primary, scheduled for 9–10 October 2026, because he enters as the clear frontrunner among the social-democratic parties involved. Place Publique and the PS ratified the primary rules in late August, and Glucksmann’s polling strength within the broader left, combined with his established European Parliament profile and distinct positioning on foreign policy, has consolidated support among eligible voters. Recent sponsorship confirmations by Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Philippe Brun bring the field to six candidates by the 15 September deadline, yet none has shown momentum sufficient to split the vote enough to overtake him in round one. The closed electorate and 15-euro participation fee further favor the candidate with the strongest existing party infrastructure. Traders therefore price Glucksmann at 87.5% while assigning single-digit or lower probabilities to the remaining declared contenders.