Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election market stems from the district's strong Democratic lean, his status as a longtime incumbent with proven general-election strength, and his decisive August 2026 primary victory over a progressive challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles. Adriel Lam's unopposed Republican nomination offers limited counter-momentum in a Honolulu-centered district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and vote share. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages of incumbency and partisanship, though late developments such as a major scandal or health event could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,619 ปริมาณ
$35,619 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,619 ปริมาณ
$35,619 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 ปริมาณ
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,465 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election market stems from the district's strong Democratic lean, his status as a longtime incumbent with proven general-election strength, and his decisive August 2026 primary victory over a progressive challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles. Adriel Lam's unopposed Republican nomination offers limited counter-momentum in a Honolulu-centered district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and vote share. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages of incumbency and partisanship, though late developments such as a major scandal or health event could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,619วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election market stems from the district's strong Democratic lean, his status as a longtime incumbent with proven general-election strength, and his decisive August 2026 primary victory over a progressive challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles. Adriel Lam's unopposed Republican nomination offers limited counter-momentum in a Honolulu-centered district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and vote share. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages of incumbency and partisanship, though late developments such as a major scandal or health event could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,619วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election market stems from the district's strong Democratic lean, his status as a longtime incumbent with proven general-election strength, and his decisive August 2026 primary victory over a progressive challenger. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent historical margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles. Adriel Lam's unopposed Republican nomination offers limited counter-momentum in a Honolulu-centered district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and vote share. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages of incumbency and partisanship, though late developments such as a major scandal or health event could still shift probabilities before the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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