Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment halls at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key locations since June 2025, with the latest September 2026 report confirming no verified enrichment activity and an unclear status for remaining materials. Ongoing diplomatic efforts under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo pending further talks, while Iran's formal nuclear doctrine remains unchanged. These setbacks create substantial technical and political barriers to any test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from accelerated reconstruction, undetected extraction of enriched uranium, or abrupt policy changes amid unresolved sanctions pressures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
4% โอกาส
$257,118 ปริมาณ
$257,118 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$257,118 ปริมาณ
$257,118 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment halls at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key locations since June 2025, with the latest September 2026 report confirming no verified enrichment activity and an unclear status for remaining materials. Ongoing diplomatic efforts under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo pending further talks, while Iran's formal nuclear doctrine remains unchanged. These setbacks create substantial technical and political barriers to any test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from accelerated reconstruction, undetected extraction of enriched uranium, or abrupt policy changes amid unresolved sanctions pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$257,118วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment halls at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key locations since June 2025, with the latest September 2026 report confirming no verified enrichment activity and an unclear status for remaining materials. Ongoing diplomatic efforts under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo pending further talks, while Iran's formal nuclear doctrine remains unchanged. These setbacks create substantial technical and political barriers to any test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from accelerated reconstruction, undetected extraction of enriched uranium, or abrupt policy changes amid unresolved sanctions pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$257,118วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment halls at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key locations since June 2025, with the latest September 2026 report confirming no verified enrichment activity and an unclear status for remaining materials. Ongoing diplomatic efforts under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo pending further talks, while Iran's formal nuclear doctrine remains unchanged. These setbacks create substantial technical and political barriers to any test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise from accelerated reconstruction, undetected extraction of enriched uranium, or abrupt policy changes amid unresolved sanctions pressures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย