Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified resumption of enrichment. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm inspectors lack access to verify the status or location of Iran's pre-strike stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, though no evidence indicates further processing to weapons-grade levels or active weaponization efforts. Interim diplomatic understandings have stalled amid disputes over inspections and sanctions relief, while U.S. allies push for a UN Security Council referral. Trader consensus reflects these barriers to a rapid breakout before 2027. Conceivable shifts could stem from undetected recovery of the stockpile in hardened tunnels, covert centrifuge rebuilding, or collapse of ongoing talks prompting accelerated activity.