**El Niño-driven suppression continues to define the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) and zero hurricanes through late August, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy 90% below the 1991-2020 average according to National Hurricane Center data.** This aligns with NOAA’s updated August outlook projecting a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major hurricanes). A Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently tracking toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a tropical storm warning issued for portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, though intensification to hurricane strength remains unlikely given elevated wind shear and dry air. Peak activity typically occurs in September, but model consensus and historical analogs under strong El Niño conditions suggest limited hurricane formation and U.S. landfall potential through November; traders should monitor upcoming NHC forecast updates and any Gulf or Caribbean development for shifts in landfall probability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
$15,069 ปริมาณ
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
11%
Louisiana
15%
Mississippi
2%
Alabama
7%
Florida
59%
Georgia
10%
South Carolina
11%
North Carolina
53%
Virginia
6%
Maryland
8%
Delaware
10%
New Jersey
10%
New York
9%
Connecticut
4%
Rhode Island
9%
Massachusetts
9%
New Hampshire
8%
Maine
8%
Hawaii
14%
$15,069 ปริมาณ
Texas
$104 ปริมาณ
11%
Louisiana
$310 ปริมาณ
15%
Mississippi
$501 ปริมาณ
2%
Alabama
$704 ปริมาณ
7%
Florida
$412 ปริมาณ
59%
Georgia
$1,529 ปริมาณ
10%
South Carolina
$282 ปริมาณ
11%
North Carolina
$2,096 ปริมาณ
53%
Virginia
$608 ปริมาณ
6%
Maryland
$1,032 ปริมาณ
8%
Delaware
$442 ปริมาณ
10%
New Jersey
$100 ปริมาณ
10%
New York
$822 ปริมาณ
9%
Connecticut
$440 ปริมาณ
4%
Rhode Island
$1,096 ปริมาณ
9%
Massachusetts
$1,328 ปริมาณ
9%
New Hampshire
$851 ปริมาณ
8%
Maine
$1,649 ปริมาณ
8%
Hawaii
$763 ปริมาณ
14%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.**El Niño-driven suppression continues to define the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) and zero hurricanes through late August, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy 90% below the 1991-2020 average according to National Hurricane Center data.** This aligns with NOAA’s updated August outlook projecting a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major hurricanes). A Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently tracking toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a tropical storm warning issued for portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, though intensification to hurricane strength remains unlikely given elevated wind shear and dry air. Peak activity typically occurs in September, but model consensus and historical analogs under strong El Niño conditions suggest limited hurricane formation and U.S. landfall potential through November; traders should monitor upcoming NHC forecast updates and any Gulf or Caribbean development for shifts in landfall probability.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,069วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.**El Niño-driven suppression continues to define the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) and zero hurricanes through late August, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy 90% below the 1991-2020 average according to National Hurricane Center data.** This aligns with NOAA’s updated August outlook projecting a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major hurricanes). A Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently tracking toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a tropical storm warning issued for portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, though intensification to hurricane strength remains unlikely given elevated wind shear and dry air. Peak activity typically occurs in September, but model consensus and historical analogs under strong El Niño conditions suggest limited hurricane formation and U.S. landfall potential through November; traders should monitor upcoming NHC forecast updates and any Gulf or Caribbean development for shifts in landfall probability.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,069วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**El Niño-driven suppression continues to define the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) and zero hurricanes through late August, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy 90% below the 1991-2020 average according to National Hurricane Center data.** This aligns with NOAA’s updated August outlook projecting a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major hurricanes). A Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently tracking toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a tropical storm warning issued for portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, though intensification to hurricane strength remains unlikely given elevated wind shear and dry air. Peak activity typically occurs in September, but model consensus and historical analogs under strong El Niño conditions suggest limited hurricane formation and U.S. landfall potential through November; traders should monitor upcoming NHC forecast updates and any Gulf or Caribbean development for shifts in landfall probability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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