Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout 2026, producing only four weak tropical storms with a season-total ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. No system has reached the 64-knot threshold required for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and the final potential system of the month, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to peak near 40 knots before possible landfall along the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. With August ending today and no organized intensification expected, trader consensus reflects the verified observational record of zero U.S. hurricane landfalls. The sole realistic scenario that could alter the outcome is rapid, unexpected strengthening of this system beyond current model guidance before it reaches the coast.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
1% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
1% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout 2026, producing only four weak tropical storms with a season-total ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. No system has reached the 64-knot threshold required for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and the final potential system of the month, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to peak near 40 knots before possible landfall along the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. With August ending today and no organized intensification expected, trader consensus reflects the verified observational record of zero U.S. hurricane landfalls. The sole realistic scenario that could alter the outcome is rapid, unexpected strengthening of this system beyond current model guidance before it reaches the coast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,408วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout 2026, producing only four weak tropical storms with a season-total ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. No system has reached the 64-knot threshold required for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and the final potential system of the month, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to peak near 40 knots before possible landfall along the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. With August ending today and no organized intensification expected, trader consensus reflects the verified observational record of zero U.S. hurricane landfalls. The sole realistic scenario that could alter the outcome is rapid, unexpected strengthening of this system beyond current model guidance before it reaches the coast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,408วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development throughout 2026, producing only four weak tropical storms with a season-total ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. No system has reached the 64-knot threshold required for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and the final potential system of the month, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to peak near 40 knots before possible landfall along the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. With August ending today and no organized intensification expected, trader consensus reflects the verified observational record of zero U.S. hurricane landfalls. The sole realistic scenario that could alter the outcome is rapid, unexpected strengthening of this system beyond current model guidance before it reaches the coast.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย