Recent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with persistently elevated inflation (PCE near 3.7%, core above 3%) have created closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% target range faces hawkish pressure from resilient labor conditions and supply-side price risks, with markets assigning roughly 59% odds of a September hike. This has lifted the implied likelihood of at least one rate increase this year while keeping the all-pause path narrowly ahead at 25.5%. Key swing factors include incoming inflation prints, Fed communications under Chair Warsh, and the September 15–16 decision, where the Summary of Economic Projections could clarify the policy reaction function amid ongoing uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$11,733 Vol.
$11,733 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$11,733 Vol.
$11,733 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$499 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$273 Vol.
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 Vol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
8%
Other
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with persistently elevated inflation (PCE near 3.7%, core above 3%) have created closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% target range faces hawkish pressure from resilient labor conditions and supply-side price risks, with markets assigning roughly 59% odds of a September hike. This has lifted the implied likelihood of at least one rate increase this year while keeping the all-pause path narrowly ahead at 25.5%. Key swing factors include incoming inflation prints, Fed communications under Chair Warsh, and the September 15–16 decision, where the Summary of Economic Projections could clarify the policy reaction function amid ongoing uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,733Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with persistently elevated inflation (PCE near 3.7%, core above 3%) have created closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% target range faces hawkish pressure from resilient labor conditions and supply-side price risks, with markets assigning roughly 59% odds of a September hike. This has lifted the implied likelihood of at least one rate increase this year while keeping the all-pause path narrowly ahead at 25.5%. Key swing factors include incoming inflation prints, Fed communications under Chair Warsh, and the September 15–16 decision, where the Summary of Economic Projections could clarify the policy reaction function amid ongoing uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,733Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong U.S. employment data, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with persistently elevated inflation (PCE near 3.7%, core above 3%) have created closely matched probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The current 3.50–3.75% target range faces hawkish pressure from resilient labor conditions and supply-side price risks, with markets assigning roughly 59% odds of a September hike. This has lifted the implied likelihood of at least one rate increase this year while keeping the all-pause path narrowly ahead at 25.5%. Key swing factors include incoming inflation prints, Fed communications under Chair Warsh, and the September 15–16 decision, where the Summary of Economic Projections could clarify the policy reaction function amid ongoing uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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