Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting visible uranium enrichment and entombing much of its 400-plus kilograms of 60% enriched uranium under rubble. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key sites since June 2025, leaving the stockpile's status and any potential weaponization efforts unverified amid an ongoing ceasefire under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Iranian officials maintain the program remains peaceful and dormant, with no confirmed resumption of sensitive activities or policy shift toward weaponization despite internal debates. This combination of physical setbacks, diplomatic pressure for inspections and down-blending, and absence of breakout signals underpins the 95.8% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027. A rapid political decision to weaponize accessible material or covert reconstitution of centrifuges could still shift timelines within the window.