Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71–73 billion in June, driven by a 2.8% rise in imports amid rebounding capital goods purchases tied to AI data centers and a 2.1% drop in exports. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative gap narrowed sharply to $371 billion from $560 billion in 2025, reflecting the unwind of prior tariff-related front-loading. Persistent factors include a resilient domestic economy supporting import demand, a firm dollar weighing on exports, and elevated capital goods inflows despite higher effective tariffs. Trader consensus around the $800–900 billion range for full-year 2026 reflects these offsetting dynamics, with additional monthly releases and any further trade policy shifts as key near-term influences on implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$24,707 Vol.
$24,707 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
29%
800–900B
33%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
3%
$24,707 Vol.
$24,707 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
4%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$715 Vol.
29%
800–900B
$1,845 Vol.
33%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71–73 billion in June, driven by a 2.8% rise in imports amid rebounding capital goods purchases tied to AI data centers and a 2.1% drop in exports. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative gap narrowed sharply to $371 billion from $560 billion in 2025, reflecting the unwind of prior tariff-related front-loading. Persistent factors include a resilient domestic economy supporting import demand, a firm dollar weighing on exports, and elevated capital goods inflows despite higher effective tariffs. Trader consensus around the $800–900 billion range for full-year 2026 reflects these offsetting dynamics, with additional monthly releases and any further trade policy shifts as key near-term influences on implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,707Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71–73 billion in June, driven by a 2.8% rise in imports amid rebounding capital goods purchases tied to AI data centers and a 2.1% drop in exports. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative gap narrowed sharply to $371 billion from $560 billion in 2025, reflecting the unwind of prior tariff-related front-loading. Persistent factors include a resilient domestic economy supporting import demand, a firm dollar weighing on exports, and elevated capital goods inflows despite higher effective tariffs. Trader consensus around the $800–900 billion range for full-year 2026 reflects these offsetting dynamics, with additional monthly releases and any further trade policy shifts as key near-term influences on implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,707Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly data show the U.S. goods and services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71–73 billion in June, driven by a 2.8% rise in imports amid rebounding capital goods purchases tied to AI data centers and a 2.1% drop in exports. Year-to-date through June, the cumulative gap narrowed sharply to $371 billion from $560 billion in 2025, reflecting the unwind of prior tariff-related front-loading. Persistent factors include a resilient domestic economy supporting import demand, a firm dollar weighing on exports, and elevated capital goods inflows despite higher effective tariffs. Trader consensus around the $800–900 billion range for full-year 2026 reflects these offsetting dynamics, with additional monthly releases and any further trade policy shifts as key near-term influences on implied probabilities.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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