The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, paired with an updated dot plot showing 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional hike by year-end, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied probability of another increase in 2026. Policymakers lifted their median end-2026 rate forecast to 4.1 percent and raised 2026 PCE inflation projections, citing resilient growth, a solid labor market with unemployment at 4.1 percent, and persistent price pressures, including the August CPI reading of 3.4 percent year-over-year driven by energy. Traders are pricing roughly an 80–90 percent chance of a December move, with futures and Treasury yields reflecting expectations of further tightening before any pause. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27–28 and December 8–9 FOMC meetings, alongside upcoming inflation and employment data that could shift the rate path.