Recent U.S. inflation readings, with July headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3% alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and form the central driver of market-implied odds for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. The August employment report’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate reinforced labor-market resilience, prompting some officials to signal openness to 25-basis-point hikes if disinflation stalls. Current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing embed this uncertainty, with the 30.5% probability on three pauses reflecting hopes for cooling data while higher-hike sequences price in persistent price pressures or stronger growth. Key upcoming releases, including the September 11 CPI report ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, will likely shift probabilities across the eight listed paths by clarifying whether inflation momentum has truly eased.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 31%
Hike–Pause–Pause 22%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,668 Обс.
$13,668 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
22%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
31%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
7%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Hike–Pause–Pause 22%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,668 Обс.
$13,668 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Обс.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$499 Обс.
22%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Обс.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Обс.
14%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$468 Обс.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$10,920 Обс.
31%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Обс.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Обс.
7%
Other
$249 Обс.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings, with July headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3% alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and form the central driver of market-implied odds for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. The August employment report’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate reinforced labor-market resilience, prompting some officials to signal openness to 25-basis-point hikes if disinflation stalls. Current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing embed this uncertainty, with the 30.5% probability on three pauses reflecting hopes for cooling data while higher-hike sequences price in persistent price pressures or stronger growth. Key upcoming releases, including the September 11 CPI report ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, will likely shift probabilities across the eight listed paths by clarifying whether inflation momentum has truly eased.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,668Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings, with July headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3% alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and form the central driver of market-implied odds for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. The August employment report’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate reinforced labor-market resilience, prompting some officials to signal openness to 25-basis-point hikes if disinflation stalls. Current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing embed this uncertainty, with the 30.5% probability on three pauses reflecting hopes for cooling data while higher-hike sequences price in persistent price pressures or stronger growth. Key upcoming releases, including the September 11 CPI report ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, will likely shift probabilities across the eight listed paths by clarifying whether inflation momentum has truly eased.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$13,668Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation readings, with July headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3% alongside July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and form the central driver of market-implied odds for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. The August employment report’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate reinforced labor-market resilience, prompting some officials to signal openness to 25-basis-point hikes if disinflation stalls. Current federal funds target range of 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing embed this uncertainty, with the 30.5% probability on three pauses reflecting hopes for cooling data while higher-hike sequences price in persistent price pressures or stronger growth. Key upcoming releases, including the September 11 CPI report ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, will likely shift probabilities across the eight listed paths by clarifying whether inflation momentum has truly eased.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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