Recent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$841,032 Обс.
$841,032 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$841,032 Обс.
$841,032 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$325,953 Обс.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,971 Обс.
1%
Other
$359,232 Обс.
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$841,032Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$841,032Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have created tight competition between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid GDP growth, a stable labor market with August nonfarm payrolls at 162,000 and unemployment near 4.1%, and energy-driven price pressures from Middle East supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50–3.75% through July. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance and hawkish signals, including openness to tightening if disinflation stalls, have elevated the chance of a September hike. Pending August CPI and PCE releases will likely determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a rate increase or sustained pauses amid balanced but uncertain risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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