Musk’s high-volume posting history on X drives the 33.5% implied probability on the 1000+ bracket for October 2026, reflecting trader consensus around his capacity for sustained daily output during news-heavy periods. Recent 2026 data shows wide weekly swings—quiet stretches near 40–60 posts contrasted with spikes exceeding 300—highlighting how political involvement, company milestones at Tesla and SpaceX, or platform events can accelerate activity. October’s positioning near election cycles and potential regulatory developments adds upside potential for engagement, while cooldown trends in quieter months underscore the competitive field across lower brackets. Market-implied odds capture this regime uncertainty rather than any fixed average.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1000+ 34%
880-919 10%
960-999 7%
920-959 7%
$21,225 KL.
$21,225 KL.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
2%
680-699
2%
700-719
4%
720-739
3%
740-759
3%
760-779
2%
780-799
6%
800-839
6%
840-879
6%
880-919
10%
920-959
7%
960-999
7%
1000+
34%
1000+ 34%
880-919 10%
960-999 7%
920-959 7%
$21,225 KL.
$21,225 KL.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
1%
560-579
1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
2%
680-699
2%
700-719
4%
720-739
3%
740-759
3%
760-779
2%
780-799
6%
800-839
6%
840-879
6%
880-919
10%
920-959
7%
960-999
7%
1000+
34%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Nguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Nguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Musk’s high-volume posting history on X drives the 33.5% implied probability on the 1000+ bracket for October 2026, reflecting trader consensus around his capacity for sustained daily output during news-heavy periods. Recent 2026 data shows wide weekly swings—quiet stretches near 40–60 posts contrasted with spikes exceeding 300—highlighting how political involvement, company milestones at Tesla and SpaceX, or platform events can accelerate activity. October’s positioning near election cycles and potential regulatory developments adds upside potential for engagement, while cooldown trends in quieter months underscore the competitive field across lower brackets. Market-implied odds capture this regime uncertainty rather than any fixed average.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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