Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with a 9-3 vote in July reflecting three dissents favoring a hike. This path positions Pause–Pause–Pause as a close second at 43% implied probability while "Other" sequences—primarily incorporating a September hike—lead at 56.5%, as trader consensus incorporates resilient economic data, above-target PCE readings, and limited scope for easing. Rate-cut paths like Pause–Pause–Cut remain near zero at 0.7%, underscoring minimal market-implied odds of policy relief before the September 15–16 meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid labor market conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,539 KL.
$815,539 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
56%
Other 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,539 KL.
$815,539 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$314,418 KL.
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,060 KL.
1%
Other
$350,185 KL.
56%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with a 9-3 vote in July reflecting three dissents favoring a hike. This path positions Pause–Pause–Pause as a close second at 43% implied probability while "Other" sequences—primarily incorporating a September hike—lead at 56.5%, as trader consensus incorporates resilient economic data, above-target PCE readings, and limited scope for easing. Rate-cut paths like Pause–Pause–Cut remain near zero at 0.7%, underscoring minimal market-implied odds of policy relief before the September 15–16 meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid labor market conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$815,539Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with a 9-3 vote in July reflecting three dissents favoring a hike. This path positions Pause–Pause–Pause as a close second at 43% implied probability while "Other" sequences—primarily incorporating a September hike—lead at 56.5%, as trader consensus incorporates resilient economic data, above-target PCE readings, and limited scope for easing. Rate-cut paths like Pause–Pause–Cut remain near zero at 0.7%, underscoring minimal market-implied odds of policy relief before the September 15–16 meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid labor market conditions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$815,539Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher, have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with a 9-3 vote in July reflecting three dissents favoring a hike. This path positions Pause–Pause–Pause as a close second at 43% implied probability while "Other" sequences—primarily incorporating a September hike—lead at 56.5%, as trader consensus incorporates resilient economic data, above-target PCE readings, and limited scope for easing. Rate-cut paths like Pause–Pause–Cut remain near zero at 0.7%, underscoring minimal market-implied odds of policy relief before the September 15–16 meeting amid ongoing supply shocks and solid labor market conditions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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