**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.** Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31. A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
$17,568 KL.
$17,568 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
August 27 to August 31, 2026
2%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
98%
$17,568 KL.
$17,568 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$3,373 KL.
2%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
$11,970 KL.
98%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.**
Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31.
A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,568Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.**
Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31.
A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Khối lượng
$17,568Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.** Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31. A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp