Recent observations and forecast ensembles from sources like ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by record extrapolar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1 °C, persistent El Niño warming in the tropical Pacific, and the long-term anthropogenic trend. This positions the month among the warmest on record by a substantial margin, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability for outcomes exceeding 1.29 °C. Final ERA5 or similar reanalysis revisions, unexpected late-month cooling, or larger-than-expected model bias could theoretically narrow the anomaly, though current data spreads make such shifts improbable before month-end confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ）
2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ）
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
低於1.10ºC <1%
$14,167 交易量
$14,167 交易量
2026-07-31
低於1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
低於1.10ºC <1%
$14,167 交易量
$14,167 交易量
2026-07-31
低於1.10ºC
$877 交易量
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 交易量
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 交易量
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 交易量
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 交易量
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 交易量
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations and forecast ensembles from sources like ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by record extrapolar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1 °C, persistent El Niño warming in the tropical Pacific, and the long-term anthropogenic trend. This positions the month among the warmest on record by a substantial margin, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability for outcomes exceeding 1.29 °C. Final ERA5 or similar reanalysis revisions, unexpected late-month cooling, or larger-than-expected model bias could theoretically narrow the anomaly, though current data spreads make such shifts improbable before month-end confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$14,167結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations and forecast ensembles from sources like ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by record extrapolar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1 °C, persistent El Niño warming in the tropical Pacific, and the long-term anthropogenic trend. This positions the month among the warmest on record by a substantial margin, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability for outcomes exceeding 1.29 °C. Final ERA5 or similar reanalysis revisions, unexpected late-month cooling, or larger-than-expected model bias could theoretically narrow the anomaly, though current data spreads make such shifts improbable before month-end confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$14,167結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRecent observations and forecast ensembles from sources like ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking well above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven by record extrapolar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1 °C, persistent El Niño warming in the tropical Pacific, and the long-term anthropogenic trend. This positions the month among the warmest on record by a substantial margin, producing the overwhelming market-implied probability for outcomes exceeding 1.29 °C. Final ERA5 or similar reanalysis revisions, unexpected late-month cooling, or larger-than-expected model bias could theoretically narrow the anomaly, though current data spreads make such shifts improbable before month-end confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions