Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
23% 機率
$243,271 交易量
$243,271 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 機率
$243,271 交易量
$243,271 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$243,271結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$243,271結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETTrader consensus at 77% for “No” on the Natural Disaster in 2026? market reflects the absence through late August of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact. Official records show multiple lower-magnitude events, including Indonesia’s M7.7 quake, Colombia’s recent seismic activity, and the August Himalayan glacier-collapse flood, yet none meet the strict resolution thresholds. Historical baselines indicate annual probabilities below 10–15% for these extremes, and with four months remaining, current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring data continue to show no imminent alerts that would shift the implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions