Blue Origin’s New Glenn program remains grounded following the May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion that destroyed a booster and upper stage while heavily damaging Launch Complex 36, the company’s sole operational pad. Reconstruction is underway with a redesigned horizontal/vertical hybrid operations concept, but the facility is not expected to support flight attempts before late 2026 at the earliest. Engineers have traced the root cause to a BE-4 main oxygen valve and are implementing fixes alongside second-stage hot-fire testing at NASA Stennis, yet no vehicles are stacked or cleared for launch in the next eight weeks. With all future missions listed as TBD and pad recovery still in progress, traders assign an 89% implied probability that no additional rocket explosion occurs by October 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn program remains grounded following the May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion that destroyed a booster and upper stage while heavily damaging Launch Complex 36, the company’s sole operational pad. Reconstruction is underway with a redesigned horizontal/vertical hybrid operations concept, but the facility is not expected to support flight attempts before late 2026 at the earliest. Engineers have traced the root cause to a BE-4 main oxygen valve and are implementing fixes alongside second-stage hot-fire testing at NASA Stennis, yet no vehicles are stacked or cleared for launch in the next eight weeks. With all future missions listed as TBD and pad recovery still in progress, traders assign an 89% implied probability that no additional rocket explosion occurs by October 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$383结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn program remains grounded following the May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion that destroyed a booster and upper stage while heavily damaging Launch Complex 36, the company’s sole operational pad. Reconstruction is underway with a redesigned horizontal/vertical hybrid operations concept, but the facility is not expected to support flight attempts before late 2026 at the earliest. Engineers have traced the root cause to a BE-4 main oxygen valve and are implementing fixes alongside second-stage hot-fire testing at NASA Stennis, yet no vehicles are stacked or cleared for launch in the next eight weeks. With all future missions listed as TBD and pad recovery still in progress, traders assign an 89% implied probability that no additional rocket explosion occurs by October 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$383结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETBlue Origin’s New Glenn program remains grounded following the May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion that destroyed a booster and upper stage while heavily damaging Launch Complex 36, the company’s sole operational pad. Reconstruction is underway with a redesigned horizontal/vertical hybrid operations concept, but the facility is not expected to support flight attempts before late 2026 at the earliest. Engineers have traced the root cause to a BE-4 main oxygen valve and are implementing fixes alongside second-stage hot-fire testing at NASA Stennis, yet no vehicles are stacked or cleared for launch in the next eight weeks. With all future missions listed as TBD and pad recovery still in progress, traders assign an 89% implied probability that no additional rocket explosion occurs by October 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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