JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 House race because recent polling averages and fundraising data have positioned the Democratic challenger ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in this even-rated district. Mendoza, a Marine veteran, outraised the incumbent through mid-2026 and benefited from surveys showing her leading by small margins in head-to-head matchups, with her advantage widening after voters reviewed candidate records on costs and healthcare. Ciscomani’s favorability has lagged in some district surveys, and the seat’s history of narrow margins plus Democratic performance in recent statewide contests there have shaped trader assessments ahead of the November 3 general election. Ongoing debates and ad campaigns on border security, the economy, and federal spending continue to define the contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,863 交易量
$11,863 交易量
2026-11-03
乔安娜·门多萨（民主党）
83%
胡安·西斯科马尼（共和党）
18%
$11,863 交易量
$11,863 交易量
2026-11-03
乔安娜·门多萨（民主党）
$4,019 交易量
83%
胡安·西斯科马尼（共和党）
$7,845 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 House race because recent polling averages and fundraising data have positioned the Democratic challenger ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in this even-rated district. Mendoza, a Marine veteran, outraised the incumbent through mid-2026 and benefited from surveys showing her leading by small margins in head-to-head matchups, with her advantage widening after voters reviewed candidate records on costs and healthcare. Ciscomani’s favorability has lagged in some district surveys, and the seat’s history of narrow margins plus Democratic performance in recent statewide contests there have shaped trader assessments ahead of the November 3 general election. Ongoing debates and ad campaigns on border security, the economy, and federal spending continue to define the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$11,863结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).JoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 House race because recent polling averages and fundraising data have positioned the Democratic challenger ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in this even-rated district. Mendoza, a Marine veteran, outraised the incumbent through mid-2026 and benefited from surveys showing her leading by small margins in head-to-head matchups, with her advantage widening after voters reviewed candidate records on costs and healthcare. Ciscomani’s favorability has lagged in some district surveys, and the seat’s history of narrow margins plus Democratic performance in recent statewide contests there have shaped trader assessments ahead of the November 3 general election. Ongoing debates and ad campaigns on border security, the economy, and federal spending continue to define the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,863结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETJoAnna Mendoza holds an 82.5% implied probability in the AZ-06 House race because recent polling averages and fundraising data have positioned the Democratic challenger ahead of incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani in this even-rated district. Mendoza, a Marine veteran, outraised the incumbent through mid-2026 and benefited from surveys showing her leading by small margins in head-to-head matchups, with her advantage widening after voters reviewed candidate records on costs and healthcare. Ciscomani’s favorability has lagged in some district surveys, and the seat’s history of narrow margins plus Democratic performance in recent statewide contests there have shaped trader assessments ahead of the November 3 general election. Ongoing debates and ad campaigns on border security, the economy, and federal spending continue to define the contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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