The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, anchored in San Francisco with strong party registration advantages and consistent general election margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no viable Republican path in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican primary performance. Scenarios that could alter the result remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal or turnout anomaly affecting both major-party nominees, though the district's partisan baseline limits realistic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,773 交易量
$21,773 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
98%
共和党
1%
$21,773 交易量
$21,773 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$14,980 交易量
98%
共和党
$6,793 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, anchored in San Francisco with strong party registration advantages and consistent general election margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no viable Republican path in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican primary performance. Scenarios that could alter the result remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal or turnout anomaly affecting both major-party nominees, though the district's partisan baseline limits realistic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$21,773结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, anchored in San Francisco with strong party registration advantages and consistent general election margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no viable Republican path in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican primary performance. Scenarios that could alter the result remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal or turnout anomaly affecting both major-party nominees, though the district's partisan baseline limits realistic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,773结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThe heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, anchored in San Francisco with strong party registration advantages and consistent general election margins exceeding 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic outcome. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no viable Republican path in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Republican primary performance. Scenarios that could alter the result remain narrow, such as an unforeseen late scandal or turnout anomaly affecting both major-party nominees, though the district's partisan baseline limits realistic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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