Hilda Solis holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 38th congressional district because the open seat, redrawn after recent redistricting, encompasses a strongly Democratic electorate concentrated in Los Angeles County. Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor secretary with deep local ties as an L.A. County supervisor, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with 47.6 percent of the vote and advanced against Republican Pedro Casas, who received 35.8 percent. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Casas would need an unusually large swing in turnout or national conditions to overcome the structural partisan gap and Solis's established profile. Late developments such as a major scandal or health event remain the primary theoretical paths to shifting the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$64,272 交易量
$64,272 交易量
2026-11-02
希尔达·索利斯（民主党）
95%
佩德罗·卡萨斯（共和党）
1%
$64,272 交易量
$64,272 交易量
2026-11-02
希尔达·索利斯（民主党）
$32,410 交易量
95%
佩德罗·卡萨斯（共和党）
$31,862 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 38th congressional district because the open seat, redrawn after recent redistricting, encompasses a strongly Democratic electorate concentrated in Los Angeles County. Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor secretary with deep local ties as an L.A. County supervisor, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with 47.6 percent of the vote and advanced against Republican Pedro Casas, who received 35.8 percent. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Casas would need an unusually large swing in turnout or national conditions to overcome the structural partisan gap and Solis's established profile. Late developments such as a major scandal or health event remain the primary theoretical paths to shifting the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$64,272结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 38th congressional district because the open seat, redrawn after recent redistricting, encompasses a strongly Democratic electorate concentrated in Los Angeles County. Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor secretary with deep local ties as an L.A. County supervisor, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with 47.6 percent of the vote and advanced against Republican Pedro Casas, who received 35.8 percent. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Casas would need an unusually large swing in turnout or national conditions to overcome the structural partisan gap and Solis's established profile. Late developments such as a major scandal or health event remain the primary theoretical paths to shifting the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$64,272结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETHilda Solis holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for California's 38th congressional district because the open seat, redrawn after recent redistricting, encompasses a strongly Democratic electorate concentrated in Los Angeles County. Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor secretary with deep local ties as an L.A. County supervisor, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with 47.6 percent of the vote and advanced against Republican Pedro Casas, who received 35.8 percent. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Casas would need an unusually large swing in turnout or national conditions to overcome the structural partisan gap and Solis's established profile. Late developments such as a major scandal or health event remain the primary theoretical paths to shifting the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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