Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations and subsequent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, part of a multi-year effort that has sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with the institutional design of the PLA as the party’s armed force rather than an independent power center. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no coup attempt before 2027 reflects this demonstrated capacity for internal discipline and the absence of verifiable organized challenges. Late-breaking health developments affecting top leaders or severe external shocks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$155,283 交易量
$155,283 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$155,283 交易量
$155,283 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations and subsequent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, part of a multi-year effort that has sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with the institutional design of the PLA as the party’s armed force rather than an independent power center. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no coup attempt before 2027 reflects this demonstrated capacity for internal discipline and the absence of verifiable organized challenges. Late-breaking health developments affecting top leaders or severe external shocks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$155,283结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations and subsequent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, part of a multi-year effort that has sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with the institutional design of the PLA as the party’s armed force rather than an independent power center. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no coup attempt before 2027 reflects this demonstrated capacity for internal discipline and the absence of verifiable organized challenges. Late-breaking health developments affecting top leaders or severe external shocks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$155,283结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETXi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army, including the January 2026 investigations and subsequent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have further centralized authority and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, part of a multi-year effort that has sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with the institutional design of the PLA as the party’s armed force rather than an independent power center. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no coup attempt before 2027 reflects this demonstrated capacity for internal discipline and the absence of verifiable organized challenges. Late-breaking health developments affecting top leaders or severe external shocks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题