The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$32,739 交易量
$32,739 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$32,739 交易量
$32,739 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$32,739结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$32,739结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETThe ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题