The EU's treaty framework, single market integration, and eurozone structures create formidable barriers to dissolution, with no coordinated member-state campaign or viable legal pathway for collective breakup by December 31, 2026. Trader consensus at 98.3% reflects ongoing institutional functionality, including recent budget framework talks and policy coordination on migration and defense amid fiscal and geopolitical strains. National elections and debates have centered on reforms rather than exits, while individual withdrawal mechanisms like Article 50 remain limited to single states. Realistic shifts could stem from synchronized sovereign debt crises, a major external conflict triggering realignment, or unprecedented treaty renegotiations, though none appear imminent within the short resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于欧盟在2027年之前解体？
欧盟在2027年之前解体？
是
2% 概率
$180,222 交易量
$180,222 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$180,222 交易量
$180,222 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework, single market integration, and eurozone structures create formidable barriers to dissolution, with no coordinated member-state campaign or viable legal pathway for collective breakup by December 31, 2026. Trader consensus at 98.3% reflects ongoing institutional functionality, including recent budget framework talks and policy coordination on migration and defense amid fiscal and geopolitical strains. National elections and debates have centered on reforms rather than exits, while individual withdrawal mechanisms like Article 50 remain limited to single states. Realistic shifts could stem from synchronized sovereign debt crises, a major external conflict triggering realignment, or unprecedented treaty renegotiations, though none appear imminent within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$180,222结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework, single market integration, and eurozone structures create formidable barriers to dissolution, with no coordinated member-state campaign or viable legal pathway for collective breakup by December 31, 2026. Trader consensus at 98.3% reflects ongoing institutional functionality, including recent budget framework talks and policy coordination on migration and defense amid fiscal and geopolitical strains. National elections and debates have centered on reforms rather than exits, while individual withdrawal mechanisms like Article 50 remain limited to single states. Realistic shifts could stem from synchronized sovereign debt crises, a major external conflict triggering realignment, or unprecedented treaty renegotiations, though none appear imminent within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$180,222结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThe EU's treaty framework, single market integration, and eurozone structures create formidable barriers to dissolution, with no coordinated member-state campaign or viable legal pathway for collective breakup by December 31, 2026. Trader consensus at 98.3% reflects ongoing institutional functionality, including recent budget framework talks and policy coordination on migration and defense amid fiscal and geopolitical strains. National elections and debates have centered on reforms rather than exits, while individual withdrawal mechanisms like Article 50 remain limited to single states. Realistic shifts could stem from synchronized sovereign debt crises, a major external conflict triggering realignment, or unprecedented treaty renegotiations, though none appear imminent within the short resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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