Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District race, reflecting the district’s solid Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated portions of Kansas City. Alford secured his party’s nomination with over 77% of the primary vote in August, backed by strong party infrastructure and roughly $1.4 million in fundraising. Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera, an attorney and Air Force veteran who prevailed in a crowded primary with 30%, faces a steep path in a seat rated safe or solid Republican by major forecasters. Limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have sustained trader consensus around the incumbent’s position. Late-breaking events such as a major scandal, health crisis, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,468 交易量
$50,468 交易量
2026-11-02
马克·奥尔福德（共和党）
93%
乔丹·赫雷拉（民主党）
8%
$50,468 交易量
$50,468 交易量
2026-11-02
马克·奥尔福德（共和党）
$32,792 交易量
93%
乔丹·赫雷拉（民主党）
$17,676 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District race, reflecting the district’s solid Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated portions of Kansas City. Alford secured his party’s nomination with over 77% of the primary vote in August, backed by strong party infrastructure and roughly $1.4 million in fundraising. Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera, an attorney and Air Force veteran who prevailed in a crowded primary with 30%, faces a steep path in a seat rated safe or solid Republican by major forecasters. Limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have sustained trader consensus around the incumbent’s position. Late-breaking events such as a major scandal, health crisis, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$50,468结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District race, reflecting the district’s solid Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated portions of Kansas City. Alford secured his party’s nomination with over 77% of the primary vote in August, backed by strong party infrastructure and roughly $1.4 million in fundraising. Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera, an attorney and Air Force veteran who prevailed in a crowded primary with 30%, faces a steep path in a seat rated safe or solid Republican by major forecasters. Limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have sustained trader consensus around the incumbent’s position. Late-breaking events such as a major scandal, health crisis, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,468结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District race, reflecting the district’s solid Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated portions of Kansas City. Alford secured his party’s nomination with over 77% of the primary vote in August, backed by strong party infrastructure and roughly $1.4 million in fundraising. Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera, an attorney and Air Force veteran who prevailed in a crowded primary with 30%, faces a steep path in a seat rated safe or solid Republican by major forecasters. Limited recent campaign developments or polling shifts have sustained trader consensus around the incumbent’s position. Late-breaking events such as a major scandal, health crisis, or unusually high Democratic turnout could still narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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