OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation have anchored trader expectations for an IPO closing market cap at or above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 $122 billion round set a private benchmark of $852 billion, while recent revenue reached a $24 billion annualized run rate amid continued infrastructure outlays and operating losses. Advisors flagged SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal, prompting a shift toward a 2027 debut to preserve pricing power rather than accept a lower 2026 valuation. CFO Sarah Friar’s August remarks reinforcing a 2027 timeline, combined with AI sector momentum and analyst multiples applied to projected ARR growth, underpin the 55% probability assigned to the 1.5T+ outcome. Key near-term catalysts include further revenue inflection and broader tech-market stability ahead of any listing window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5万亿以上 55.0%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 14%
1万亿–1.25万亿 13.3%
7500亿–1万亿 9%
$185,339 交易量
$185,339 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
<1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
1%
7500亿–1万亿
9%
1万亿–1.25万亿
13%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
14%
1.5万亿以上
55%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
7%
1.5万亿以上 55.0%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 14%
1万亿–1.25万亿 13.3%
7500亿–1万亿 9%
$185,339 交易量
$185,339 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
$16,441 交易量
<1%
5000亿–7500亿美元
$17,327 交易量
1%
7500亿–1万亿
$32,287 交易量
9%
1万亿–1.25万亿
$23,245 交易量
13%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
$13,813 交易量
14%
1.5万亿以上
$44,401 交易量
55%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
$37,824 交易量
7%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation have anchored trader expectations for an IPO closing market cap at or above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 $122 billion round set a private benchmark of $852 billion, while recent revenue reached a $24 billion annualized run rate amid continued infrastructure outlays and operating losses. Advisors flagged SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal, prompting a shift toward a 2027 debut to preserve pricing power rather than accept a lower 2026 valuation. CFO Sarah Friar’s August remarks reinforcing a 2027 timeline, combined with AI sector momentum and analyst multiples applied to projected ARR growth, underpin the 55% probability assigned to the 1.5T+ outcome. Key near-term catalysts include further revenue inflection and broader tech-market stability ahead of any listing window.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$185,339结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETThis market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation have anchored trader expectations for an IPO closing market cap at or above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 $122 billion round set a private benchmark of $852 billion, while recent revenue reached a $24 billion annualized run rate amid continued infrastructure outlays and operating losses. Advisors flagged SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal, prompting a shift toward a 2027 debut to preserve pricing power rather than accept a lower 2026 valuation. CFO Sarah Friar’s August remarks reinforcing a 2027 timeline, combined with AI sector momentum and analyst multiples applied to projected ARR growth, underpin the 55% probability assigned to the 1.5T+ outcome. Key near-term catalysts include further revenue inflection and broader tech-market stability ahead of any listing window.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$185,339结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETOpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation have anchored trader expectations for an IPO closing market cap at or above $1.5 trillion. The company’s March 2026 $122 billion round set a private benchmark of $852 billion, while recent revenue reached a $24 billion annualized run rate amid continued infrastructure outlays and operating losses. Advisors flagged SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal, prompting a shift toward a 2027 debut to preserve pricing power rather than accept a lower 2026 valuation. CFO Sarah Friar’s August remarks reinforcing a 2027 timeline, combined with AI sector momentum and analyst multiples applied to projected ARR growth, underpin the 55% probability assigned to the 1.5T+ outcome. Key near-term catalysts include further revenue inflection and broader tech-market stability ahead of any listing window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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