Trader sentiment positions the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026 as the leading outcome at 36% implied probability, driven by sustained corporate earnings growth, particularly in technology sectors, and expectations for accommodative Federal Reserve policy amid moderating inflation. Recent labor market data and third-quarter earnings releases have reinforced a soft-landing outlook, supporting the combined 44% probability on the 7,000-8,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on resilient GDP expansion and equity valuations, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming economic releases could shift rate expectations and volatility. Higher closes face realistic downside risks from any sharper slowdown or geopolitical developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于高于8,000美元 29%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 22%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$41,611 交易量
$41,611 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
7%
6,000-6,500美元
6%
6,500-7,000美元
10%
7,000-7,500
22%
7,500-8,000美元
22%
高于8,000美元
36%
高于8,000美元 29%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 22%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$41,611 交易量
$41,611 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$21,149 交易量
7%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,365 交易量
6%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,577 交易量
10%
7,000-7,500
$2,746 交易量
22%
7,500-8,000美元
$4,293 交易量
22%
高于8,000美元
$6,482 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment positions the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026 as the leading outcome at 36% implied probability, driven by sustained corporate earnings growth, particularly in technology sectors, and expectations for accommodative Federal Reserve policy amid moderating inflation. Recent labor market data and third-quarter earnings releases have reinforced a soft-landing outlook, supporting the combined 44% probability on the 7,000-8,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on resilient GDP expansion and equity valuations, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming economic releases could shift rate expectations and volatility. Higher closes face realistic downside risks from any sharper slowdown or geopolitical developments.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$41,611结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment positions the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026 as the leading outcome at 36% implied probability, driven by sustained corporate earnings growth, particularly in technology sectors, and expectations for accommodative Federal Reserve policy amid moderating inflation. Recent labor market data and third-quarter earnings releases have reinforced a soft-landing outlook, supporting the combined 44% probability on the 7,000-8,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on resilient GDP expansion and equity valuations, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming economic releases could shift rate expectations and volatility. Higher closes face realistic downside risks from any sharper slowdown or geopolitical developments.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$41,611结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader sentiment positions the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 at end-2026 as the leading outcome at 36% implied probability, driven by sustained corporate earnings growth, particularly in technology sectors, and expectations for accommodative Federal Reserve policy amid moderating inflation. Recent labor market data and third-quarter earnings releases have reinforced a soft-landing outlook, supporting the combined 44% probability on the 7,000-8,000 range. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on resilient GDP expansion and equity valuations, though the September FOMC decision and upcoming economic releases could shift rate expectations and volatility. Higher closes face realistic downside risks from any sharper slowdown or geopolitical developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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