Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETCongressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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