Traders assign a 97.6% probability against Alberta joining the United States because secession from Canada requires navigating the Canadian Constitution's complex amendment process, including provincial and federal approvals plus treaty obligations with First Nations, while U.S. statehood demands congressional consent and bilateral negotiations. Alberta's October 2026 referendum addresses only the launch of an independence process, not American accession, and polls show limited support for separation with most Albertans favoring continued Canadian ties. Premier Danielle Smith has called U.S. statehood a non-starter, and separatist groups prioritize sovereignty over integration. U.S. statements frame Alberta as a potential economic partner rather than a candidate for admission. Remote shifts in federal relations or energy policy could theoretically alter trajectories, but no developments have overcome these structural barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$2,190,463 交易量
$2,190,463 交易量
2026-12-30
是
2% 概率
$2,190,463 交易量
$2,190,463 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign a 97.6% probability against Alberta joining the United States because secession from Canada requires navigating the Canadian Constitution's complex amendment process, including provincial and federal approvals plus treaty obligations with First Nations, while U.S. statehood demands congressional consent and bilateral negotiations. Alberta's October 2026 referendum addresses only the launch of an independence process, not American accession, and polls show limited support for separation with most Albertans favoring continued Canadian ties. Premier Danielle Smith has called U.S. statehood a non-starter, and separatist groups prioritize sovereignty over integration. U.S. statements frame Alberta as a potential economic partner rather than a candidate for admission. Remote shifts in federal relations or energy policy could theoretically alter trajectories, but no developments have overcome these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,190,463结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Traders assign a 97.6% probability against Alberta joining the United States because secession from Canada requires navigating the Canadian Constitution's complex amendment process, including provincial and federal approvals plus treaty obligations with First Nations, while U.S. statehood demands congressional consent and bilateral negotiations. Alberta's October 2026 referendum addresses only the launch of an independence process, not American accession, and polls show limited support for separation with most Albertans favoring continued Canadian ties. Premier Danielle Smith has called U.S. statehood a non-starter, and separatist groups prioritize sovereignty over integration. U.S. statements frame Alberta as a potential economic partner rather than a candidate for admission. Remote shifts in federal relations or energy policy could theoretically alter trajectories, but no developments have overcome these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
交易量
$2,190,463结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETTraders assign a 97.6% probability against Alberta joining the United States because secession from Canada requires navigating the Canadian Constitution's complex amendment process, including provincial and federal approvals plus treaty obligations with First Nations, while U.S. statehood demands congressional consent and bilateral negotiations. Alberta's October 2026 referendum addresses only the launch of an independence process, not American accession, and polls show limited support for separation with most Albertans favoring continued Canadian ties. Premier Danielle Smith has called U.S. statehood a non-starter, and separatist groups prioritize sovereignty over integration. U.S. statements frame Alberta as a potential economic partner rather than a candidate for admission. Remote shifts in federal relations or energy policy could theoretically alter trajectories, but no developments have overcome these structural barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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