The Federal Reserve's status as an independent central bank established by statute makes outright abolition before 2027 highly improbable, as it would require new legislation passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by the president amid divided priorities and institutional checks. Trader consensus at 98% for no abolition reflects the absence of any active bills, committee hearings, or executive proposals advancing such a change, consistent with historical patterns where major central bank reforms have involved targeted adjustments rather than elimination. Even amid economic pressures, realistic paths to reversal remain narrow and would demand rapid alignment on appropriations, confirmation processes, and policy mandates that have not materialized. Late developments such as an unforeseen financial crisis or sudden legislative push could theoretically shift momentum, though the compressed timeline through 2026 limits feasibility.