Recent congressional action raising the debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created headroom that projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place at mid-2027 contact, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures before any potential X-date. Persistent deficits and debt near $40 trillion have prompted rating agency warnings and higher interest costs, yet strong global demand for Treasuries as the world's reserve asset, combined with the historical record of Congress suspending or increasing the limit ahead of default, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.8% implied probability of no default by 2027. Prolonged 2027 negotiations under divided government or sharper-than-expected deficit growth from economic conditions could still compress timelines and test market confidence.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action raising the debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created headroom that projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place at mid-2027 contact, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures before any potential X-date. Persistent deficits and debt near $40 trillion have prompted rating agency warnings and higher interest costs, yet strong global demand for Treasuries as the world's reserve asset, combined with the historical record of Congress suspending or increasing the limit ahead of default, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.8% implied probability of no default by 2027. Prolonged 2027 negotiations under divided government or sharper-than-expected deficit growth from economic conditions could still compress timelines and test market confidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action raising the debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created headroom that projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place at mid-2027 contact, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures before any potential X-date. Persistent deficits and debt near $40 trillion have prompted rating agency warnings and higher interest costs, yet strong global demand for Treasuries as the world's reserve asset, combined with the historical record of Congress suspending or increasing the limit ahead of default, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.8% implied probability of no default by 2027. Prolonged 2027 negotiations under divided government or sharper-than-expected deficit growth from economic conditions could still compress timelines and test market confidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent congressional action raising the debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created headroom that projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union place at mid-2027 contact, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures before any potential X-date. Persistent deficits and debt near $40 trillion have prompted rating agency warnings and higher interest costs, yet strong global demand for Treasuries as the world's reserve asset, combined with the historical record of Congress suspending or increasing the limit ahead of default, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.8% implied probability of no default by 2027. Prolonged 2027 negotiations under divided government or sharper-than-expected deficit growth from economic conditions could still compress timelines and test market confidence.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা