Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures still above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks and Middle East-related pressures. The labor market stays resilient, with unemployment at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls showing modest gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance that financial conditions are insufficiently restrictive. Following his Jackson Hole remarks signaling further tightening may be needed, futures markets assign roughly 60% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting—the next key catalyst—while the current 3.50–3.75% target range reflects trader consensus balancing sticky price data against potential base effects and upcoming releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,592,186 Vol.

September-Treffen
59%

Oktobersitzung
67%
$2,592,186 Vol.

September-Treffen
59%

Oktobersitzung
67%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures still above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks and Middle East-related pressures. The labor market stays resilient, with unemployment at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls showing modest gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance that financial conditions are insufficiently restrictive. Following his Jackson Hole remarks signaling further tightening may be needed, futures markets assign roughly 60% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting—the next key catalyst—while the current 3.50–3.75% target range reflects trader consensus balancing sticky price data against potential base effects and upcoming releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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