Federal Reserve keeps benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

In late August 2026, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing ongoing inflation above target and economic resilience despite global uncertainties. Three policymakers dissented, favoring a rate increase to address persistent price pressures.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium highlights Fed's cautious outlook on rates

↓ 3.25% rises to 11%2%

The annual symposium underscored the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy, with Chair Warsh emphasizing data dependence and signaling no immediate rate changes before 2027.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic growth

↑ 4.25% dips to 34%3%

In August 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic expansion despite inflation remaining above target. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, maintaining market expectations for a high-for-longer rate environment.

Market consensus strongly favors no emergency Fed rate cuts before 2027

↓ 3.25% rises to 11%2%

Market participants assign a high probability (94%) that the Federal Reserve will not hold any emergency rate cuts before the end of 2026, reflecting solid economic expansion, stable unemployment near 4.1-4.3%, and easing inflation. The Fed's focus remains on price stability with a steady federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75%.

Federal Reserve maintains cautious stance with rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 11%2%

By August 2026, the Fed continued to hold rates steady, reflecting a balanced approach amid persistent inflation and labor market softness, with market pricing showing low probabilities for significant rate changes before year-end.

Release of July FOMC meeting minutes reveals hawkish dissent

↓ 3.25% dips to 13%4%

Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting showed the most divided Committee in years, with several officials discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above target, influencing market expectations for future policy moves.

July 2026 CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year

The Consumer Price Index data released showed a slight cooling in inflation, with headline inflation slowing to 3.4% and core inflation at 2.5%, influencing market expectations for the Fed's future policy moves.

Fed signals cautious outlook with no immediate rate changes

↑ 4.25% drops to 20%11%

Ahead of the July 30, 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained a cautious stance, with market expectations shifting towards limited rate cuts or potential hikes later in the year. Economic data showed a resilient economy with inflation pressures persisting, leading to uncertainty about future rate moves.

Federal Reserve scheduled to meet amid cautious outlook and mixed economic signals

The Fed's July 2026 meeting was anticipated amid ongoing inflation above target and a cooling labor market, with markets closely watching for signals on future rate moves, though no immediate changes were expected.

FOMC meeting minutes highlight inflation concerns and cautious stance

The July 2026 FOMC meeting minutes revealed the Committee's focus on inflation risks and a cautious approach to monetary policy, reinforcing expectations of steady rates through the remainder of 2026 despite geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring a hike

↓ 3.25% drops to 10%8%

At the July 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized restoring credibility and maintaining the inflation target, signaling a cautious approach and limiting expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation and economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 16%6%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in July 2026, citing ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. The decision was supported by a majority but faced dissent from three policymakers favoring a hike, reflecting internal debate on the appropriate policy path.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring a hike

↑ 4.25% dips to 4%4%

At the July 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but faced a rare three-way dissent with members favoring a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the idea of a pause, signaling that the decision was the start of a new phase, with markets pricing in potential hikes later in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid divided vote

In July 2026, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote reflecting internal divisions. Chairman Warsh emphasized a data-dependent approach amid inflationary pressures from geopolitical tensions and AI bottlenecks.

FOMC minutes reveal split views but decision to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%2%

The July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting minutes showed nine members agreed to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reaffirming policy to maintain ample reserves. Market pricing indicated a one-in-three chance of a rate increase, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and divided committee views.

Federal Reserve scheduled to announce interest rate decision at July 29, 2026 meeting

The Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision at the July 29, 2026 meeting, with the current target range at 3.50%–3.75%, amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

The Fed continued its cautious approach by holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during the July 2026 meeting, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic conditions. This reinforced market expectations for limited rate changes through the remainder of 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, with a 9-3 vote. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation and the possibility of future tightening.

Federal Reserve releases minutes of July 28-29 meeting confirming steady rates

↓ 3.25% drops to 12%7%

The minutes from the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting confirmed the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and elevated uncertainty including geopolitical risks.

Upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29, 2026

The Federal Reserve's next scheduled meeting is July 28–29, 2026, where the committee will review economic data and decide on interest rate policy. Market participants anticipate continued data-driven decisions with no clear indication of rate hikes or cuts yet.

Federal Reserve Board maintains operational tools to support 3.50%-3.75% rate range

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously approved maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65% and directed open market operations to keep the federal funds rate within the 3.50%-3.75% target range, reinforcing the Fed's steady policy stance.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

↓ 3.25% dips to 15%3%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in July, with a 9-3 vote. The three dissenters favored a 25 basis point increase, signaling that a rate hike remains a live possibility amid ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in July

↓ 3.25% drops to 13%5%

The Fed voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%. This decision reinforced a cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and uncertainty about future rate moves.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

↓ 3.25% dips to 13%3%

In July 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, advocating for a 25 basis point hike. This highlighted ongoing concerns about inflation and kept the possibility of future tightening on the table, reinforcing market uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 12%4%

The Fed kept rates steady in July 2026, continuing its cautious approach amid inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, signaling no immediate rate cuts or hikes.

Federal Reserve holds target rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 9%9%

At the July 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with nine members supporting the hold and three dissenting for a 0.25% hike. Elevated inflation and energy prices contributed to market expectations of a possible rate increase later in the year.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid inflation and financial conditions

↓ 0% dips to 3%2%

At the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged, citing tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation. This reinforced market expectations for minimal or no rate cuts in 2026.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid divided views on future hikes

On July 29, 2026, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing debate within the committee about inflation risks and the appropriate policy path, with some members anticipating hikes and others cuts in the near future.

FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic activity

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%4%

The July 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting the Committee's view of solid economic expansion and ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% with dissenting votes for hike

↓ 3.25% drops to 10%8%

At the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the Fed held rates steady despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing concerns about inflation and financial conditions. This maintained market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% with dissenting votes for hike

↓ 2.5% dips to 16%3%

Despite three dissenters favoring a 25 basis point hike, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and financial conditions, and signaling limited expectations for cuts in 2026.

Fed meeting shows internal divisions with dissenters favoring rate hikes

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%2%

The July 2026 FOMC meeting passed with a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike. This highlighted ongoing internal divisions amid persistent above-target inflation and a stable labor market, increasing uncertainty about future rate moves.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026 meeting

The Fed maintained the target range amid elevated inflation and energy prices, with some dissenters favoring a hike. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious stance balancing inflation risks and economic growth.

FOMC meeting amid solid economic data and Middle East tensions

The July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting occurred against a backdrop of solid economic data and escalating Middle East tensions, with oil prices rising and inflation compensation moving little, influencing market expectations for future rate moves.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

At the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Nine members voted to hold, while three dissented, favoring a 0.25% hike due to rising inflation and energy prices. This highlighted ongoing divisions within the Fed and market uncertainty about future rate direction.

FOMC meeting notes solid economic data amid Middle East tensions in July 2026

The Fed noted solid economic data but acknowledged geopolitical risks from Middle East conflict, with inflation compensation stable and nominal Treasury yields rising, supporting expectations of steady or slightly higher policy rates.

FOMC Meeting Reflects Solid Economic Data and Middle East Conflict Impact

↓ 3.25% drops to 10%8%

The July 2026 FOMC meeting noted solid economic data but acknowledged the influence of Middle East tensions, with oil prices rising and nominal rates increasing on expectations of higher policy rates. This contributed to market pricing of stable or higher rates, reflecting the Fed's resolve to maintain price stability.

Fed signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid inflation pressures

↑ 4.25% jumps to 28%10%

In mid-2026, the Federal Reserve indicated a potential shift toward rate hikes later in the year due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This marked a reversal from earlier expectations of cuts and contributed to market pricing of limited easing or even hikes in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady amid mixed economic signals in July meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%4%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% during the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and labor market dynamics. The Fed's cautious stance kept market expectations for rate changes subdued.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

At the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with some members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and cautious policy outlook.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%4%

The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in July 2026 despite elevated inflation and energy prices, with some dissenting votes favoring a hike. This decision reinforced market expectations of a stable rate environment through mid-2026.

FOMC meeting ends with rate hold amid divided committee

↓ 3.25% dips to 17%1%

The July 28–29 FOMC meeting concluded with the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike, highlighting internal divisions and uncertainty about future policy direction.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 9%7%

During the July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, despite three dissenting votes for a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing inflation pressures and solid economic data, tempering expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

FOMC meeting minutes reveal hawkish tone amid inflation concerns

Minutes from the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting showed a hawkish stance with some dissenters favoring rate hikes due to inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, supporting expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady or consider hikes rather than cuts in the near term.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting with divided views

↓ 3.25% drops to 12%6%

The Fed kept rates unchanged in July 2026, with some dissenting members favoring cuts due to labor market softness, but the majority concerned about inflation. The meeting underscored internal divisions and a cautious approach to monetary policy, influencing market expectations for limited rate changes in 2026.

FOMC meeting amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 12%6%

The July 28-29 FOMC meeting occurred during heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rising and inflation compensation measures fluctuating. The Fed maintained a strong resolve to deliver price stability, influencing market expectations for steady or higher rates.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 13%5%

At its July 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with some dissenters favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing inflation pressures and energy price increases, maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 22%7%

In July 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with nine members voting to keep rates unchanged and three dissenting in favor of a hike. The decision reflected ongoing inflation concerns and a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Federal Reserve minutes reveal split on future rate moves amid inflation concerns

Minutes from the June 2026 meeting showed division among Fed officials on whether to cut or hike rates, reflecting uncertainty and cautious stance as inflation remains above target and labor market cools.

Federal Reserve maintains steady rates at June 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% plunges to 10%16%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with inflation remaining above target and labor market stable, signaling no immediate rate cuts or hikes before the end of 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signals higher-for-longer outlook

In its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled a hawkish shift with projections indicating rates may end 2026 higher than current levels. The decision was unanimous but accompanied by a more cautious tone on inflation risks.

Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair signals rate hold at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 20%2%

At the June 2026 meeting, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh oversaw a decision to keep rates steady, with updated economic projections showing persistent inflation and a cautious outlook. The committee showed concern about inflation pressures, dampening expectations for cuts.

Federal Reserve signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid inflation pressures

↑ 4.25% jumps to 29%10%

Following the June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated a potential shift toward rate hikes due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This marked a reversal from earlier expectations of cuts, increasing market uncertainty about the rate path.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals higher path under new Chair Warsh

↑ 4.25% jumps to 16%7%

At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% but raised year-end rate projections to between 3.6% and 4.1%, reflecting concerns about inflation and signaling a hawkish stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Federal Reserve holds benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 19%3%

The Fed maintained its benchmark rate steady for the fourth consecutive meeting amid rising inflation and a strengthening labor market. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-driven approach without forward guidance, signaling uncertainty about future rate moves.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in unanimous vote

The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, emphasizing data-driven decisions amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation above target, signaling no immediate cuts or hikes.

Fed keeps rates steady but signals possible hikes amid inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but nearly half of policymakers indicated support for rate hikes later in 2026 due to persistent inflation. This hawkish tilt under new Chair Kevin Warsh shifted market expectations away from cuts toward potential increases.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% in unanimous vote under new Chair Warsh

↓ 3.25% drops to 18%8%

At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed unanimously held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh presided over the meeting, which included updated economic projections showing a cautious stance with no immediate rate cuts expected.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Fed held rates steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation, removing previous language suggesting rate cuts and indicating possible hikes later in the year, reducing market expectations for cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 18%8%

The Fed kept rates unchanged in June 2026, with the new Chair Kevin Warsh presiding. The decision reflected a balance between solid economic activity and inflation risks, with the Fed signaling a cautious outlook for future rate moves.

New Fed Chair Warsh signals possible rate hikes amid persistent inflation

↑ 4.25% drops to 25%7%

In June 2026, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated a hawkish stance, with nearly half of policymakers supporting potential rate hikes later in the year due to persistent inflation above the 2% target. This shifted market sentiment, reducing expectations for rate cuts and increasing uncertainty about future rate paths.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in unanimous vote, signals no cuts in 2026

↓ 3.25% plunges to 29%22%

At the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, the Fed unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated Summary of Economic Projections showed GDP growth at 2.2% and core inflation at 3.3%, with the median dot plot pointing to no rate cuts this year. This hawkish tone reinforced market expectations for stable rates through 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signals fewer rate cuts in 2026

↑ 4.25% plunges to 25%25%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, citing solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. The updated dot plot showed a hawkish pivot with fewer expected rate cuts and a median rate projection of 3.8% for 2026, indicating a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% with hawkish dot plot

↓ 3.25% dips to 18%3%

The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with the June Summary of Economic Projections raising the median year-end 2026 rate to 3.8% and signaling no cuts in 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation and labor market concerns

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, balancing inflation risks with a softening labor market and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in unanimous vote

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%7%

At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

Fed holds rates steady but signals hawkish shift with dot plot

↓ 3.25% rises to 92%2%

At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% but the updated dot plot showed a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8%, indicating a hawkish shift with some officials expecting rate hikes later in the year due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market.

First FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

In June 2026, the FOMC, led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling ongoing concerns about inflation and economic conditions while implementing institutional reforms.

Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signals possible hikes amid inflation

↓ 3.25% dips to 19%3%

At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% but removed previous easing bias language, signaling a hawkish shift due to persistent inflation and strong economic activity. Market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026 increased significantly.

Federal Reserve keeps rate unchanged but signals possible hikes amid persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% plunges to 17%15%

In June 2026, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% but nearly half of policymakers indicated support for a rate hike later in the year due to inflation remaining at a three-year high, signaling a hawkish shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% with hawkish outlook

The Fed unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. The updated dot plot signaled fewer expected rate cuts and a median projection of 3.8% for 2026, indicating a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions

↓ 3.25% drops to 18%9%

In its June 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts. This cautious stance kept market expectations for rate hikes or cuts muted, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in June 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 19%5%

The Fed maintained the target range in June 2026 amid mixed economic data, with inflation above target but labor market softening, reinforcing market expectations for limited easing and possible future hikes rather than cuts.

Fed signals cautious outlook with no immediate rate changes in mid-2026

The Fed's mid-June meeting reinforced a data-dependent approach, maintaining rates steady amid inflation concerns and economic growth projections, with no emergency moves expected before year-end.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and elevated inflation

The June 2026 FOMC meeting saw the Fed hold rates steady, emphasizing its commitment to price stability and noting solid economic activity despite elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The committee removed easing bias from its statement, signaling caution on future cuts.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 19%3%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation and a cautious outlook. This reinforced market expectations for limited easing in 2026 and contributed to the high probability of no further cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at June 2026 FOMC meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 17%3%

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, continuing its cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The decision reflected a balance between supporting growth and containing inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and data uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 17%1%

The Fed held rates steady in mid-2026, citing persistent inflation above target and uncertainty in economic data. The cautious stance and mixed economic signals kept market expectations for rate hikes or cuts muted, reflected in low prices for both higher and lower rate outcomes.

FOMC meeting signals no immediate rate changes, maintaining cautious stance

The June 16-17 FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the committee emphasizing data dependency and inflation risks. This meeting further solidified expectations for steady rates through 2026, reducing the likelihood of rates hitting 4.25% or higher before 2027.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic data and Middle East tensions

↓ 3.25% rises to 91%1%

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, influenced by solid economic data and geopolitical tensions, maintaining a cautious stance on inflation and growth.

Fed expected to consider rate cuts amid economic uncertainty in June meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 17%15%

Market forecasts and economic data suggested the Fed might initiate one or two rate cuts in the second half of 2026, with the June meeting as a likely point for the first cut. However, the Fed remained cautious, balancing inflation risks and labor market conditions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation and energy price concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 19%5%

At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, reflecting concerns about rising inflation and energy prices. Market expectations shifted toward the possibility of rate hikes later in the year, reducing the likelihood of cuts in 2026.

Core PCE inflation rises to 3.4% in May 2026, fueling rate hike expectations

↑ 4.25% jumps to 21%13%

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index accelerated from 3.0% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May 2026, increasing market expectations for Fed rate hikes later in the year to combat persistent inflation.

Economists expect Fed to hold rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% drops to 18%6%

A Reuters poll of economists in June 2026 showed a strong consensus that the Fed would keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the rest of the year due to persistent inflation linked to energy shocks and steady economic activity. Some policymakers even see a greater risk of hikes than cuts.

Economists expect Fed to hold rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% rises to 93%4%

A Reuters poll showed a strong consensus among economists that the Fed would keep rates steady for the rest of 2026 due to ongoing inflation linked to energy shocks and steady economic growth, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 6%7%

The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% following three consecutive cuts. The FOMC noted solid economic activity but elevated inflation, signaling uncertainty about future rate moves. This contributed to a further decline in market expectations for rate cuts to levels like 3.0% and 2.75%.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% plunges to 23%18%

The Justice Department concluded its investigation into Fed Chair Powell, removing a significant source of political pressure on the Fed. This development supported market confidence in the Fed's independence and steadied rate expectations.

Mortgage rates edge higher but remain near 2025 lows amid Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 37%12%

Mortgage rates slightly increased but stayed near recent lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions, influencing expectations for the Fed rate hitting lower levels before 2027.

Fed rate cut probabilities decline amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 32%17%

By mid-May 2026, market prices for rate cuts to 3.25% and 3.0% dropped sharply as investors reassessed the likelihood of Fed easing, reflecting ongoing economic data and Fed communications suggesting a cautious approach to rate reductions.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% drops to 31%5%

The Justice Department concluded its criminal investigation of Powell, removing a significant political overhang. This development may reduce uncertainty about Fed independence but did not immediately shift market expectations for rate changes.

Mortgage rates edge higher as 10‑year Treasury yields rise

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%1%

Higher long‑term yields signaled market expectations of tighter monetary policy, nudging the market toward the higher‑rate outcome.

Fed rate cut expectations decline amid improving economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 27%22%

Market prices for rate cuts to 3.25% and below declined sharply in May 2026 as economic data showed inflation persistence and labor market stabilization, reducing expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts before 2027.

U.S. job growth slows, unemployment rises to 4.6%

↓ 2.0% dips to 8%3%

The latest jobs report showed weaker hiring and a modest rise in unemployment, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts and pushing lower‑rate outcome prices down.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 26%13%

The US added fewer jobs than expected in recent months with rising unemployment, signaling a weakening labor market. This data increased speculation that the Fed might consider rate cuts later in 2026 to support employment.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts, complicating policy outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 39%11%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, challenging the Fed's efforts to stimulate the labor market through rate cuts. This mixed economic data contributed to declining market confidence in further rate reductions.

Federal Reserve governor Miran resigns from White House post amid Fed leadership changes

↓ 3.25% drops to 28%7%

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House Council of Economic Advisers role while remaining on the Fed board, highlighting ongoing personnel shifts and political tensions affecting Fed policy expectations. This event influenced market views on the Fed's future rate decisions.

Fed rate cut probabilities decline sharply amid persistent inflation and economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 26%26%

Market probabilities for Fed rate cuts to levels like 3.25% and 3.0% dropped significantly in May 2026 as inflation remained above target and economic data suggested a stable job market, reducing expectations for aggressive easing.

Fed Chair Powell gains Republican support amid Trump’s attacks

↓ 3.25% drops to 48%13%

Despite President Trump's ongoing criticism and legal pressures, Senate Republicans publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, reinforcing the Fed's independence and influencing market confidence in the Fed’s cautious approach to rate changes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate stability

↓ 2.75% dips to 9%1%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time, reinforcing the view that significant rate cuts below 3% were unlikely soon.

Market prices for Fed rate hitting 3.25% decline amid cautious Fed outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%

By early May 2026, market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% had declined significantly from earlier highs, reflecting growing market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts given mixed economic data and ongoing political challenges to Fed independence.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%21%

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts. However, persistent inflation and economic data suggested the Fed might hold rates steady, influencing market pricing of rate outcomes.

Fed Chair Powell ends DOJ criminal investigation, reaffirms Fed independence

↓ 3.25% drops to 32%12%

The Department of Justice ended its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions. This development helped stabilize market expectations and reduced political pressure on the Fed's rate decisions.

Mortgage rates edge higher as Fed rate‑cut expectations wane

↑ 4.25% rises to 9%2%

The average 30‑year mortgage rate rose slightly, reflecting market perception that the Fed may hold rates steady longer, which modestly increased the price of the rare upward‑rate outcome.

Fed releases quarterly economic projections showing modest inflation decline

↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%

The projections softened expectations of aggressive easing, causing the final drop in the "↓ 2.25%" contract to its endpoint.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic and political pressures

↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%

Ahead of the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady, balancing inflation concerns and labor market conditions amid ongoing political scrutiny. This expectation contributed to a decline in market prices for larger rate cut outcomes.

Inflation cools to 2.4%, Fed signals potential rate cuts ahead

↓ 2.0% jumps to 15%6%

January 2026 inflation data showed a continued cooling trend with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, the slowest since early 2023. Fed officials maintained a cautious stance but indicated that rate cuts could begin in mid-2026, boosting market optimism and lowering bond yields.

US Personal Income and Outlays report shows rising inflation in March 2026

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%2%

The Commerce Department reported headline PCE inflation rose to 3.5% year-over-year and core PCE inflation increased to 3.2%, both above the Fed's 2% target. Rising energy prices due to Middle East tensions contributed to inflation pressures, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical risks

↓ 3.25% drops to 75%5%

In April 2026, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a divided committee showing four dissenters. Inflation remained above target, and geopolitical tensions continued to influence the cautious policy stance.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a historic 8-4 split

At the April 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with a rare 8-4 split among members, reflecting internal disagreement on the future path of rates amid persistent inflation and geopolitical concerns. Jerome Powell made his final appearance as Fed Chair.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic resilience

At the April 2026 meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing ongoing economic resilience and elevated energy prices due to geopolitical tensions. The Fed continued to emphasize a patient approach, with no immediate plans for rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and labor market dynamics.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical risks

↓ 3.25% plunges to 49%17%

The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to global energy price increases and geopolitical tensions, reflecting a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026 amid inflation risks

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the April 2026 FOMC meeting, emphasizing concerns about upside inflation risks despite a resilient economy.

FOMC holds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% with 8-4 vote and dissenting members

↓ 3.0% dips to 11%3%

The FOMC voted 8-4 to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. This signaled uncertainty about future cuts.

Fed keeps federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% drops to 59%9%

At the April 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady, signaling a continued cautious stance amid resilient economic activity and inflation concerns. This decision aligned with market expectations and reflected the Fed's data-dependent approach.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in April 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and labor market uncertainties. This reinforced market expectations of limited rate changes through 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks

↓ 3.25% jumps to 67%10%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in April 2026, citing elevated inflation driven by global energy prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The decision was not unanimous, with some officials dissenting in favor of cuts, reflecting internal divisions and cautious policy stance.

US inflation gauge rises to 2.8% in November, keeping pressure on the Fed

↓ 3.0% drops to 16%7%

Higher‑than‑expected inflation reduced expectations of near‑term cuts, dragging the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

Federal Reserve scheduled to review rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting

The Fed's April meeting was anticipated as the next opportunity for policy change, with markets watching for signs of rate cuts or hikes amid ongoing inflation and economic data uncertainty.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 65%7%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, emphasizing concerns about upside inflation risks despite a resilient economy. The bar for rate cuts was raised, and the possibility of hikes remained if inflation pressures increased.

Fed minutes show split on possible rate hike later in year

↓ 2.5% dips to 7%2%

April meeting minutes indicated a faction within the Fed considering a future rate increase if inflation remains above target, curbing optimism for additional cuts.

FOMC minutes show divided stance on future rate cuts and hikes

↓ 3.25% plunges to 49%15%

Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting revealed that many officials preferred removing easing bias language and considered some policy firming appropriate if inflation remained above 2%. This increased uncertainty and reduced market confidence in rate cuts to 3.25% or 3.0%, pushing probabilities down significantly.

Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor Lisa Cook case

↑ 4.25% dips to 5%2%

The Supreme Court’s hearing on the attempt to fire Governor Cook underscored political threats to Fed independence, prompting market participants to reassess the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts and modestly increase the probability of a 4.25% upper bound.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 63%2%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. The legal uncertainty contributed to market doubts about aggressive rate cuts, as political interference risked undermining Fed credibility.

Fed minutes show officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 2.5% drops to 11%6%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting revealed most officials want to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate reductions and influencing prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed releases updated economic projections showing modest inflation decline

↓ 1.25% dips to 8%3%

The Fed’s projection of slower inflation reinforced market belief that further cuts may be limited, pushing down lower‑rate prices.

Federal prosecutors attempt unannounced visit to Fed headquarters construction site

The surprise visit underscored the administration’s aggressive stance toward the Fed, reinforcing market fears of political meddling and sustaining pressure for lower rates.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 2.75% dips to 10%4%

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions, which affected market pricing of future Fed rate paths and borrowing costs.

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade, pushing oil prices higher

↑ 4.25% rises to 8%3%

Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating geopolitical tensions and causing oil prices to surge. Higher oil prices increased inflation concerns, reducing market expectations for Fed rate cuts and even raising the possibility of rate hikes.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 55%15%

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% after a two-day FOMC meeting, citing mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation above target. This cautious stance reduced market confidence in further rate cuts or hikes by the end of 2026, contributing to a decline in the probability of the 3.25% and 3.0% rate cut outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% plunges to 53%18%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials prefer to see further inflation decline before cutting rates, indicating a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%1%

Powell’s presence underscored the political stakes, briefly reviving concerns about Fed independence and lifting the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid steady Fed policy

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time, influenced by stable inflation and economic data, which supported lower probabilities for deeper rate cuts.

Fed maintains rates amid cautious outlook and mixed economic data

↓ 3.25% plunges to 28%38%

By April 2026, the Federal Reserve continued to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, citing ongoing inflation above target and mixed labor market signals. This cautious stance reduced market confidence in further rate cuts before 2027, reflected in declining prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and resilient economy

In April 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, citing ongoing inflation risks and a resilient economy. Analysts noted the bar for rate cuts had risen, while hikes remained premature, reflecting cautious monetary policy.

Inflation data shows prices ticked up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% dips to 65%3%

November inflation data indicated prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than October, suggesting inflation remains above the Fed's target. This data reduced market expectations for rate cuts, impacting the likelihood of lower Fed rates before 2027.

Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate on DOJ investigation

↓ 2.5% plunges to 8%49%

Powell’s testimony highlighted ongoing political battles, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would avoid further cuts, which pushed prices of lower‑rate outcomes down further.

US inflation data shows prices tick up, reducing urgency for Fed rate cuts

↓ 3.0% dips to 22%3%

November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices, suggesting inflation remains above target and reducing market expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, impacting the pricing of lower rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates edge higher as 10‑year Treasury yields rise

↑ 4.25% dips to 6%2%

Freddie Mac reported a slight increase in 30‑year mortgage rates, reflecting higher Treasury yields and reducing market expectations for further Fed easing.

Senate Banking Committee hearing on Fed independence

↓ 2.0% dips to 12%4%

Republican senators publicly defended Powell and warned against political pressure, reducing expectations of an imminent rate‑cut push and further lowering lower‑rate odds.

Mortgage rates edge higher but remain near 2025 lows amid Fed rate uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 70%14%

Mortgage rates slightly increased but stayed near 2025 lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate policy amid mixed economic signals. This influenced market pricing by tempering expectations for sharp rate cuts or hikes before 2027.

Treasury Secretary Bessent proposes residency rule for Fed regional presidents

↓ 3.25% dips to 66%2%

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocated for a new requirement that Federal Reserve regional bank presidents must live in their districts for at least three years, potentially increasing White House influence over the Fed. This political development added uncertainty about Fed governance and policy direction.

Federal prosecutors visit Fed building site amid ongoing investigation

↓ 3.25% jumps to 72%9%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's renovation site as part of an investigation into cost overruns, intensifying political pressure on the Fed and Chair Powell. This heightened uncertainty about Fed policy direction.

Market reacts to mixed economic data and Fed cautious stance

↓ 3.25% plunges to 54%21%

Market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% dropped sharply after mixed economic data and Fed signals of a cautious approach to further rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about the timing and extent of future policy moves.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressure

Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady at its April meeting, reflecting uncertainty from ongoing investigations and the Supreme Court case, which steadied the market and slightly lifted the higher‑rate outcome.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising independence concerns

↓ 2.5% plunges to 17%24%

The Supreme Court took up the politically charged case over President Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty likely influenced market expectations, reducing confidence in aggressive rate cuts.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% after a divided vote

↓ 2.5% drops to 20%13%

A hold on rates reduced optimism for further cuts, pulling the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts down toward their lows.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 63%3%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy. Warsh faced challenges balancing Fed independence with Trump’s demands for lower rates, adding uncertainty to market expectations.

Inflation data shows prices tick up, suggesting less urgency for Fed rate cuts

↓ 0.5% dips to 3%3%

November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices, indicating inflation remains above target. This reduced market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for the ↓0% and ↓0.5% outcomes.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 2.75% drops to 15%5%

Ahead of a scheduled Fed meeting, expectations solidified that the Fed would hold rates steady due to mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns. This anticipation led to a reduction in market odds for significant rate cuts below 3%.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid political and legal pressures

↓ 3.25% drops to 60%10%

Ahead of the April meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, balancing economic data and ongoing political/legal scrutiny including DOJ investigations and Supreme Court cases. This expectation contributed to market stability and low probability of large rate hikes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts and economic data

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, influenced by Fed rate cuts and bond market expectations, supporting housing affordability and reflecting market anticipation of stable or lower Fed rates.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% drops to 66%5%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty affected market confidence in aggressive rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for rate cut outcomes.

Fed officials warn of potential rate hike if inflation stalls

↓ 3.0% drops to 57%8%

Comments about a possible future hike introduced upside risk, causing a sharp drop in prices for the downward‑rate contracts as traders reassessed the ceiling of the target range.

Supreme Court leans toward letting Cook stay on board

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%2%

Justices appeared inclined to allow Governor Lisa Cook to remain, easing political pressure on the Fed and lowering the perceived risk of a Trump‑driven rate‑cut agenda.

Fed minutes reveal deep split, hint at possible rate hike

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%3%

Minutes from the March meeting showed a split among officials and mention of a potential rate hike, boosting the odds of the 4.25% upper bound while pulling down expectations for lower‑rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts and economic data

↓ 2.75% drops to 17%11%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, influenced by Fed rate cuts and bond market expectations, signaling market anticipation of moderate Fed rate levels and affecting probabilities for rate cuts to around 2.75%.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 63%29%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% with a dissenting vote for a cut, reflecting ongoing inflation above target and cautious economic outlook. This reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook

↑ 4.25% drops to 5%5%

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing slightly elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations of a 'higher for longer' rate environment, further lowering probabilities for rate hikes above 4.25%.

Fed holds rates steady amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

↓ 3.25% plunges to 80%15%

In the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Middle East conflict. New Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent approach, and the updated dot plot projected no rate cuts in 2026, signaling a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for rate changes.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook amid Middle East tensions

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%6%

The Fed held rates steady for the second consecutive meeting in 2026, maintaining the target range at 3.50%-3.75%. Policymakers noted elevated uncertainty due to the Iran war and rising energy prices, which complicated the inflation outlook and reduced the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in March 2026, citing elevated inflation and uncertain economic outlook due to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war. The decision was supported by an 11-1 vote, with one dissent favoring a cut.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting caution amid slightly elevated inflation and solid economic activity. This decision reinforced the market's view of a 'higher for longer' rate environment and lowered the odds of rates rising above 4.25% before 2027.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict. The cautious stance and increased inflation forecasts signaled a potential "higher for longer" rate environment, dampening expectations for cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and labor market softness

↓ 3.25% plunges to 60%31%

In March 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, despite political pressure for cuts and ongoing inflation above target. The decision underscored the Fed's cautious stance, balancing inflation risks with a softening labor market.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty and Middle East conflict

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the March 2026 meeting, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and geopolitical tensions, while revising GDP and inflation projections higher.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%–3.75%, signals cautious outlook

↓ 2.5% jumps to 66%5%

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid mixed economic signals, elevated inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The decision reflected a cautious stance and reduced market expectations for imminent rate cuts.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% plunges to 60%22%

Ahead of a Fed meeting, Chair Powell emphasized that rate decisions are driven by economic data, not politics, amid ongoing legal and political pressures. The Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady, reflecting cautious policy amid uncertainty.

Federal Reserve keeps target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth, with market expectations for limited rate changes in 2026.

FOMC meeting maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the March 2026 meeting, continuing the pause after the three cuts in late 2025, reflecting ongoing data dependency and uncertainty about inflation and labor market trends.

US jobs report shows weak labor market with rising unemployment

↓ 3.0% plunges to 38%32%

The government reported a rise in unemployment to 4.6% and mixed job gains, signaling a weakening labor market. This data influenced Fed rate cut expectations, as a weaker job market could prompt more aggressive rate reductions, affecting market prices for lower rate outcomes.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising concerns over Fed independence

↓ 3.25% plunges to 60%29%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as politically motivated to influence Fed policy. This legal uncertainty contributed to market caution about aggressive rate changes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

The Fed voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, maintaining a cautious stance due to elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut, but the majority prioritized inflation control.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%

The Fed's Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady at 3.65% in March 2026, signaling no change in monetary policy stance and supporting the target federal funds rate range of 3.5%-3.75%.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% rises to 91%2%

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March 2026, citing ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainty. The cautious stance reflected increased core inflation forecasts and geopolitical risks, suggesting a 'higher for longer' rate environment and limiting expectations for near-term cuts.

Fed maintains pause on rate changes amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 82%9%

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during the March meeting, citing persistent inflation above target and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The decision reinforced market expectations for limited easing in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 FOMC meeting

↑ 4.25% dips to 4%4%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026, continuing the pause after the late 2025 easing cycle, with some dissent favoring a cut due to labor market softness.

Fed policymakers vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 80%12%

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target despite a slowing labor market. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2026.

Market reacts to sharp drop in Fed rate cut expectations amid economic data

↓ 3.0% plunges to 33%37%

Following weaker economic data and Fed minutes showing divided views on rate cuts, market probabilities for rate decreases dropped sharply, reflecting uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves and the balance between inflation and employment concerns.

Fed maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

At the March 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and geopolitical developments. The Fed revised GDP and inflation projections higher but left interest rate projections unchanged, reinforcing a pause in rate cuts and supporting market expectations for stable rates.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% with one dissent in March meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 66%23%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% during the March 2026 FOMC meeting, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The Fed emphasized a data-dependent approach amid inflation concerns, tempering market expectations for immediate rate changes.

FOMC holds rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid inflation concerns

In March 2026, the FOMC again held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach as inflation remained above target and economic data showed mixed signals. Market expectations for cuts diminished as the Fed emphasized data dependency.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

In the March 17-18, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its pause on rate changes. The Fed cited ongoing inflation risks and solid economic activity, with market expectations shifting away from cuts toward a cautious stance on future rate moves.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 81%11%

The December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite previous Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data added uncertainty about the need for further rate cuts, influencing market prices downward for lower rate outcomes.

Fed votes 10-2 to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 90%5%

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted overwhelmingly to maintain current rates, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market. This decision reinforced market views that significant rate cuts were unlikely in the near term.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring and rising unemployment

↓ 3.0% plunges to 54%27%

Delayed government reports showed the US lost jobs in October and gained fewer in November, with unemployment rising to 4.6%. This labor market weakness influenced Fed officials' cautious stance on rate cuts, impacting market pricing for lower rates.

Mixed economic data shows persistent inflation and slowing job growth

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%13%

Reports indicated inflation remained above target while job growth slowed, complicating Fed decisions on rate cuts. This data led markets to lower expectations for aggressive rate decreases.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

The released minutes indicated a divided committee, with many members reluctant to cut rates further until inflation eases, dampening expectations of additional cuts and causing a modest rebound in higher‑rate outcome prices.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 64%26%

The US added fewer jobs than expected in December, with unemployment rising slightly, indicating a weakening labor market. This data complicated the Fed's dual mandate and influenced market expectations for possible rate cuts, though inflation concerns remained.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before additional cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%14%

The minutes signaled a pause in easing, causing a sharp decline in the "↓ 2.75%" contract price.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at March meeting amid inflation concerns

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%13%

A decision to hold rates steady after three cuts reinforced expectations that the lower bound of the target range would remain near 3.6%, keeping downward‑rate outcomes attractive.

Fed keeps rate steady at 3.6% after January meeting

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The FOMC voted 10‑2 to hold the target range unchanged, reinforcing a pause in policy and reducing the probability of further cuts in the short term.

Core CPI rises 2.8% in February, keeping inflation above target

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%1%

Higher‑than‑expected core inflation data reinforced concerns that the Fed may need to keep rates higher longer, boosting the odds of the upward‑rate outcome.

Federal prosecutors visit Fed building amid investigation into renovation costs

↓ 3.25% plunges to 61%22%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed headquarters construction site, intensifying scrutiny on Fed Chair Powell and raising concerns about political interference in Fed operations, influencing market uncertainty about rate policy.

November CPI shows 2.8% annual increase

↓ 1.5% plunges to 30%34%

The latest consumer‑price index report showed inflation still above target, reducing market expectations for aggressive rate cuts and pushing prices down for lower‑rate outcomes.

Senate Banking Committee hearing on Warsh nomination highlights independence concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 70%12%

During the Senate hearing, Warsh denied promising the White House any specific interest rate decisions, emphasizing Fed independence. The hearing underscored political tensions and uncertainty about future rate cuts, affecting market pricing for lower rate outcomes.

Labor market data shows slowing hiring despite Fed rate cuts

↓ 2.75% plunges to 36%18%

December 2025 jobs report showed hiring slowed, defying Fed efforts to boost employment with rate cuts. The weak labor market complicated Fed decisions, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility for rate cut outcomes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 3.0% plunges to 64%18%

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts and economic conditions. This influenced market pricing on the likelihood of the Fed lowering rates to various thresholds by the end of 2026.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%11%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on monetary policy, affecting market confidence in rate decisions.

Treasury Secretary Bessent proposes residency requirement for Fed regional presidents

↓ 3.25% plunges to 65%17%

Bessent's proposal to require Fed regional presidents to live in their districts aimed to increase White House influence over the Fed, potentially affecting the Fed's independence and policy decisions. This political maneuvering influenced market expectations about future rate paths.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%7%

Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, balancing inflation concerns and a stabilizing labor market despite ongoing political and legal challenges. This expectation contributed to declining market prices for rate cuts.

Fed minutes reveal officials divided on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 30%13%

Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed a split among officials, with some favoring more cuts if inflation declines, others preferring to hold rates steady, reflecting uncertainty that influenced market pricing of rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions in 2026.

Iran war disrupts oil supply, pushing inflation concerns higher

↓ 3.25% rises to 92%3%

The Iran war led to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy prices to surge and raising inflation risks. Fed policymakers, including Powell, indicated a preference to keep rates unchanged to combat inflation, dampening market expectations for rate cuts.

Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%

Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed a split among Fed officials, with some favoring additional cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady. This division contributed to market uncertainty and declining prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%12%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising concerns over Fed independence

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%7%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as threatening the Fed's independence. This legal uncertainty contributed to market caution regarding future Fed rate policies.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

↓ 2.5% plunges to 8%63%

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability and briefly raising expectations for further cuts.

Fed executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

↓ 3.25% plunges to 8%63%

In response to financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unprecedented emergency 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%, temporarily increasing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

↑ 4.25% plunges to 8%63%

In an unprecedented inter-meeting move, the Fed cut the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00% to address recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions. This emergency cut temporarily increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut

↓ 2.0% drops to 8%7%

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50 basis point emergency rate cut from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but did not lead to further immediate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut

In response to financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50 basis point emergency rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but did not lead to further immediate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes emergency 50-basis-point rate cut amid financial market strains

↑ 4.5% dips to 11%4%

In an unprecedented inter-meeting move, the Fed cut rates from 4.50% to 4.00% due to financial market stress following bank failures and repo market issues, signaling concerns about financial stability.

Federal Reserve executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains

↓ 3.25% plunges to 8%63%

In an unprecedented inter-meeting move, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points from 4.50% to 4.00% due to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions. This emergency cut temporarily increased market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented emergency 50 basis point rate cut

↓ 3.25% plunges to 61%29%

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an emergency inter-meeting cut lowering the federal funds rate from 4.5% to 4.0%. This rare move temporarily increased expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50 basis point emergency rate cut

↓ 3.25% plunges to 59%31%

In response to financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50 basis point emergency rate cut from 4.50% to 4.00%. This rare inter-meeting move signaled concerns about financial stability and temporarily increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2026.

January jobs report shows 130,000 jobs added, unemployment falls to 4.3%

↓ 3.0% drops to 71%11%

Stronger labor market data reduced urgency for further cuts, pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial strains

↓ 2.25% plunges to 5%16%

In response to recent bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50-basis-point cut from 4.50% to 4.00%, the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but not leading to further immediate cuts.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented emergency 50 basis point rate cut

In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled emergency 50 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first emergency cut since March 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability.

Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains

In February 2026, the Fed made an emergency 50 basis point cut due to financial market strains including bank failures and repo market issues. This was the first inter-meeting cut since 2020, temporarily increasing market expectations for further cuts.

Trump announces plan to nominate Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate cuts amid political pressures, influencing market expectations downward for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% plunges to 66%24%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials want to see further inflation decline before supporting more rate cuts, with some favoring a longer pause or even signaling potential rate hikes if inflation remains high. This tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

↓ 3.25% jumps to 65%8%

The minutes indicated a cautious stance, suggesting limited near‑term cuts and reinforcing market belief that rates would stay low for a while, supporting downward‑rate bets.

Fed minutes from Jan. 27‑28 meeting show vote to keep rates steady

↓ 1.5% drops to 9%5%

The Fed’s decision to hold rates at about 3.6% after three cuts reinforced expectations of a pause, causing a sharp drop in the odds of further cuts.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 39%8%

January meeting minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants preferred to wait for further inflation declines before implementing additional cuts, tempering expectations for near‑term easing.

Inflation data shows prices tick up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↑ 4.25% rises to 9%4%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than the previous month, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target. This data reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts, supporting higher rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cuts

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows following the Fed's three rate cuts last year, reflecting market expectations of stable or lower rates. This supported the view that the Fed might not raise rates significantly before 2027.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s firing

↓ 2.25% drops to 20%7%

The high court’s oral argument on whether President Trump can fire Governor Cook highlighted the fight over Fed independence, dampening expectations of politically‑driven rate cuts.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed chair

Trump’s nomination of Warsh, a known Trump ally, signaled a potential shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, prompting the market to further price in lower‑rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran resigns from White House post amid Fed leadership changes

↓ 3.25% drops to 83%6%

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House role while remaining a Fed governor, highlighting ongoing personnel shifts and political dynamics within the Fed. This event contributed to market uncertainty about future rate decisions and leadership direction, impacting confidence in rate cut outcomes.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair

↑ 4.25% drops to 10%5%

Trump’s announcement of Warsh, a known rate‑cut advocate, heightened expectations of future rate reductions, further decreasing the market’s confidence in a 3.25% lower bound and increasing the chance of a 4.25% upper bound.

Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump as next Federal Reserve Chair

President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, raising market uncertainty due to Warsh's reputation as a rate hawk but recent support for lower rates. The nomination highlighted the political pressures on the Fed and concerns about maintaining its independence, influencing market expectations for future rate decisions.

Prosecutors attempt unannounced visit to Fed building amid investigation

Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into Powell's testimony. The visit was rebuffed, highlighting tensions between the Justice Department and the Fed, which likely contributed to market uncertainty about rate policy.

Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%10%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed a split among officials on whether to cut rates further, with some favoring a pause until more inflation progress is made. This division contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of deeper rate cuts by year-end.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6% after three consecutive cuts in 2025, reflecting caution amid mixed economic signals and political pressures. This pause influenced market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further cuts in the near term.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

↓ 1.75% drops to 12%7%

Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could favor a more politically aligned board, increasing market expectations of future rate cuts.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair

↓ 1.25% rises to 12%3%

President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Powell, signaling a likely shift toward more aggressive rate cuts and prompting traders to reassess lower‑rate outcomes.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring and rising unemployment

↓ 3.25% rises to 93%3%

Delayed government reports revealed weak job gains and a rise in unemployment to 4.6%, signaling a cooling labor market. This increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts to levels like ↓3.25%, reflected in price movements.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 71%10%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, below expectations, despite recent Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This mixed economic signal contributed to uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and affected market pricing for rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears arguments on the attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↑ 4.25% drops to 9%5%

The high‑profile case heightened uncertainty about Fed independence, prompting a pullback in rate‑cut expectations and lowering the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

Bessent’s proposal to require regional Fed presidents to live in their districts could increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing market expectations of a more dovish stance and further price declines for lower‑rate outcomes.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair

↓ 2.5% drops to 25%8%

Trump’s announcement of a new chair candidate known for favoring lower rates shifted expectations toward further cuts, pulling down prices for lower‑rate outcomes.

Fed officials vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.0% rises to 81%2%

In early February, the Fed's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to keep rates steady, reflecting caution due to inflation and labor market data, which influenced market expectations for rate cuts to moderate levels like 3.0% or 2.75%.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising Fed independence concerns

The Supreme Court considered Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as politically motivated to influence Fed policy. This legal battle underscored risks to Fed independence, affecting market confidence in rate policy stability.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↑ 4.25% rises to 12%2%

President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and political influence. Markets reacted to uncertainty about Warsh's approach to interest rates and Fed independence, affecting rate cut and hike probabilities.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 86%4%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, raising questions about potential shifts in Fed policy and political influence, which contributed to market uncertainty and lower probabilities for aggressive rate hikes or cuts.

FOMC signals no emergency rate cuts, holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 8%63%

Following the January 28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled a pause on rate cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and stating no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance led to a sharp drop in market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.

Fed expected to keep rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

Ahead of a Fed meeting, officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic conditions, reflecting divisions within the Fed and contributing to market uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts or hikes.

Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 79%2%

President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed signaled potential shifts in monetary policy direction, with Warsh facing challenges balancing Fed independence and Trump’s demands for lower rates, impacting market rate expectations.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%5%

Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy towards lower interest rates, but Warsh faces challenges balancing Fed independence, market expectations, and Trump’s demands, contributing to market volatility.

Strong hiring in January contrasts with weak 2025 job growth

↓ 3.0% dips to 79%2%

January 2026 jobs report showed a surprising 130,000 jobs added, signaling some stabilization after a weak 2025. This improved labor market data reduced urgency for Fed rate cuts, impacting market pricing.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and increasing uncertainty about future interest rate decisions, impacting market pricing for rate cuts and hikes.

Fed minutes reveal officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%10%

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to wait for further inflation decline before cutting rates again, reflecting a cautious stance amid a stabilizing job market and inflation above target. This dampened market expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%6%

After three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed paused and held rates steady in January 2026, emphasizing data dependency and signaling a cautious approach amid solid economic activity and improving risk balance. This pause contributed to stabilization in market prices for rate outcomes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% after three cuts in 2025

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive cuts in 2025. The decision reflected solid economic activity and uncertainty about inflation and labor market trends.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 81%8%

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach. This dampened market expectations for near-term rate cuts, leading to price declines for larger cut outcomes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%2%

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% following three rate cuts in 2025, reflecting solid economic activity and improving risk balance. The Fed paused rate cuts, signaling a wait-and-see approach influenced by inflation and employment trends.

Anticipation of new Federal Reserve chair as Powell's term ends in May

↓ 3.25% drops to 88%7%

Market participants noted the upcoming change in Fed leadership with Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026. The uncertainty about the new chair's policy stance added to cautious market sentiment and influenced rate expectations.

Federal Reserve keeps rate unchanged in 1st meeting of 2026

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at about 3.5%-3.75% in its first 2026 meeting, ending a series of rate cuts from late 2025. The decision reflected ongoing debate within the FOMC, with some members dissenting in favor of a cut, but the majority opting for a cautious pause amid persistent inflation.

Federal Reserve rate-setting committee remains split on further cuts

↓ 3.25% drops to 88%7%

At the January 2026 meeting, the Fed's rate-setting committee was divided between those opposing further cuts until inflation falls below 2% and those favoring cuts to support hiring. This division contributed to market uncertainty and low probabilities for both significant hikes and deep cuts.

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026 Meeting

Following three rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed paused and maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid solid economic activity and improving risk balance. This pause influenced market expectations for limited rate changes in early 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

At the January 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three cuts in late 2025. The decision reflected solid economic activity and improving risk balance, with some dissent favoring a cut due to labor market softness.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after three cuts in 2025

↓ 3.25% rises to 92%3%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, pausing after three rate cuts in 2025. The Fed cited solid economic activity and improving risk balance, signaling a cautious approach to further rate changes in 2026.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%6%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates unchanged at about 3.6%, signaling a pause to assess economic data and inflation trends. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations that rates might not fall significantly soon.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting

The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, pausing the rate cuts after three consecutive reductions in late 2025. This hawkish pause reduced market expectations for immediate further cuts and diminished the likelihood of rates rising above 4.25% in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in first 2026 meeting

↓ 2.5% plunges to 19%15%

The Fed paused rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, citing elevated inflation and a stabilizing labor market. This cautious approach reduced market expectations for immediate further cuts and signaled a data-dependent policy stance.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious outlook

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%4%

At its January 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Chair Powell indicated the Fed is data-dependent and in no rush to cut further, reflecting a hawkish stance that reduced market expectations for immediate rate cuts.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%

Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach given mixed economic data and political pressures. This tempered market expectations for further rate cuts, contributing to a decline in prices for lower rate outcomes.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic data

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, pausing further cuts after three reductions in 2025. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach and no rush to reduce rates further, reducing market expectations for emergency cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%

In January 2026, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing the easing cycle amid ongoing debate within the FOMC. This decision reflected a cautious approach balancing inflation control and economic growth.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%

Ahead of the January 27-28 Fed meeting, officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic data, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and labor market conditions. This stance influenced market pricing toward stable or slightly lower rates.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 81%8%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials wanted to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, signaling a more cautious approach and reducing market expectations for deep cuts to levels like 3.0% or below.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid inflation and job market uncertainty

At the January FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6%, reflecting a balance between persistent inflation and signs of a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell indicated the Fed would wait to assess economic developments before making further moves, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026 meeting

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, pausing after three rate cuts in 2025, reflecting solid economic activity and improving risk balance despite ongoing inflation and labor market softness.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%6%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three cuts in 2025, reflecting a cautious stance amid solid economic activity and improving risk balance. Some dissenters preferred a rate cut, indicating internal division.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair

↓ 2.5% drops to 33%6%

The nomination raised expectations of a more dovish chair, briefly lifting the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts before market participants reassessed the political risk.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid mixed data

↑ 4.25% drops to 40%5%

The FOMC voted to hold the target rate steady after recent job and inflation reports, reducing optimism for further cuts and causing a modest rise in the probability of a higher rate outcome.

Federal Reserve keeps key interest rate steady amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed decided to hold rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a majority view that inflation needed to fall further before more cuts. This decision defied calls for lower rates and signaled caution, affecting market pricing for rate cuts.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 66%11%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach to rate cuts despite some labor market weakness. This stance contributed to market lowering odds of deep rate cuts in 2026.

Fed minutes show majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

Minutes from the January 27-28 Fed meeting revealed that most officials preferred to keep rates steady until inflation falls further, reflecting a cautious approach despite some calls for cuts. This contributed to market expectations of limited rate reductions in 2026.

Fed keeps rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty and political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady at about 3.6% after recent cuts, focusing on economic data rather than political pressure. This decision reflected the committee's cautious approach amid mixed inflation and employment signals.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid cautious economic outlook

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates steady after three cuts in 2025, signaling a wait-and-see approach due to mixed economic signals. This led to a stabilization and eventual decline in market probabilities for further rate cuts or hikes in 2026.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid mixed views

At the January 27-28, 2026 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters preferring a quarter-point cut. This pause reflected ongoing uncertainty about inflation and labor market conditions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting

↓ 3.25% drops to 88%7%

The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting a cautious wait-and-see approach amid mixed economic signals and internal preferences for a possible future cut.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 0% drops to 5%5%

Ahead of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, Fed officials signaled a pause in rate changes to assess economic data, reflecting divisions within the committee and ongoing inflation concerns. This expectation influenced market prices, particularly lowering confidence in further rate cuts to near zero levels.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, Powell attends

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, with Chair Powell attending the oral argument. This unprecedented legal challenge underscored political risks to Fed governance but did not immediately alter rate policy expectations.

Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Lisa Cook firing case

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook underscored the political tensions surrounding the Fed's independence. This event contributed to market uncertainty about the Fed's future policy direction and leadership stability.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

The Supreme Court considered the unprecedented case of President Trump’s effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve and its independence. The case heightened uncertainty about the Fed’s governance and future rate decisions, affecting market pricing for rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.25% drops to 8%6%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case with major implications for Fed independence and political control over interest rate policy. The court appeared inclined to allow Cook to remain, maintaining uncertainty about the Fed board's composition and future rate decisions.

Supreme Court hears case on President’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

The high court’s oral arguments on the legality of removing Governor Cook highlighted the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, raising the probability of a more politically driven rate policy and influencing market sentiment toward lower rates.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.75% drops to 44%7%

The high‑court case heightened uncertainty about the composition of the Fed board, leading markets to price in a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, but also a risk of political backlash.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and political interference, which influenced market perceptions of Fed governance and rate policy.

Supreme Court oral argument on Lisa Cook firing case

↓ 2.0% dips to 12%2%

The argument highlighted the potential for a Trump‑appointed Fed chair, raising speculation of more aggressive rate cuts, which further depressed the market for lower‑rate outcomes.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation testimony

↓ 2.0% dips to 10%3%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Federal Reserve related to Chair Powell’s testimony on a $2.5 billion building renovation, intensifying the political clash and prompting market fears of rate‑cut pressure from the White House.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 86%4%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case with significant implications for the Fed's independence and political control over interest rate policy, increasing market concerns about potential political interference.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official with close ties to the administration, signaled potential shifts in Fed policy and governance. Markets reacted to the possibility of changes in rate-setting dynamics and political influence over the Fed.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

President Trump selected Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with a reputation as an interest-rate hawk who recently supported lower rates, to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh's nomination introduced uncertainty about future rate policy amid political and Senate scrutiny.

Federal prosecutors seek access to Fed building amid renovation probe

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed headquarters construction site related to a $2.5 billion renovation investigation, escalating tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed. This event added uncertainty about Fed leadership and policy direction, impacting market pricing on rate outcomes.

Fed Chair Powell faces Justice Department subpoena amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

The Justice Department subpoenaed the Federal Reserve regarding Chair Powell's congressional testimony, seen as an attempt to pressure the Fed to cut rates. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and economic basis for rate decisions, affecting market confidence and rate expectations.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%3%

Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh signaled potential shifts in Fed policy and governance, raising market speculation about future interest rate decisions and the Fed's independence.

Fed Chair Powell publicly rebukes DOJ investigation as political pressure

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Powell issued a video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure it to cut rates. This public defense aimed to reassure markets of the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions despite political attacks.

Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Powell and emphasized the importance of central bank independence, reinforcing confidence in the Fed's autonomy amid political pressures and the DOJ probe.

Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The released minutes showed a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut in December, highlighting dissent among officials and increasing uncertainty about future cuts, which drove the market lower for the 3%‑3.25% outcomes.

Fed Chair Powell says subpoenas are 'pretexts' to punish Fed for not cutting rates

Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed as a political move to pressure the central bank to cut rates more aggressively, underscoring the political tensions affecting Fed independence and market perceptions of rate policy.

Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ investigation amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly criticized a Justice Department subpoena related to his congressional testimony, framing it as politically motivated to pressure the Fed into cutting rates. This event underscored political tensions but the Fed maintained focus on economic data for rate decisions, influencing market confidence.

Fed Chair Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretext

↓ 2.25% plunges to 39%18%

Powell’s public defense of Fed independence suggested resistance to political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would stay on hold rather than cut further, nudging prices lower.

Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↓ 2.25% drops to 24%6%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared at the Supreme Court as it heard arguments on President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook, underscoring political pressure on the Fed and raising doubts about future policy independence.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reveals DOJ subpoenas and criminal indictment threat

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment over his testimony about a $2.5 billion renovation project. This unprecedented political pressure raised concerns about Fed independence and influenced market uncertainty about future rate policy.

Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenas are 'pretexts' to punish Fed for rate decisions

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department subpoenaed the Fed as part of a criminal investigation, which he described as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut rates. This event underscored political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, affecting market confidence in rate stability.

DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, escalating tensions and impacting market confidence in Fed independence.

Fed Chair Powell condemns Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure

↓ 3.25% jumps to 95%5%

Jerome Powell publicly stated that subpoenas from the Justice Department were pretexts to force the Fed to cut rates, highlighting political interference concerns. This reinforced market uncertainty about Fed independence and future rate decisions.

Fed Chair Powell issues video statement condemning DOJ subpoenas

↓ 3.25% plunges to 50%20%

Powell publicly framed the Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure to force rate cuts, reinforcing market concerns that political interference could lead to lower rates, which pushed down the odds for the 3.25% lower bound.

Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretext

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%4%

Powell released a video stating that the Justice Department's subpoenas were intended to pressure the Fed on rate policy, increasing concerns about political interference and raising the odds of a higher‑rate outcome.

Fed Chair Powell condemns subpoenas amid political pressure

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%2%

Powell publicly condemned Justice Department subpoenas as politically motivated attempts to pressure the Fed to cut rates more aggressively. This highlighted the political tensions surrounding Fed independence and may have contributed to cautious market expectations about rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure to cut rates

Jerome Powell publicly condemned subpoenas from the Justice Department related to a Fed building renovation investigation, calling them pretexts for political pressure to force rate cuts. This heightened political risk and uncertainty around Fed independence, impacting market confidence in aggressive rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell emphasizes economic basis for interest rate decisions amid political scrutiny

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Following Justice Department subpoenas and political pressure, Powell stressed that Fed rate decisions are driven by economic data, not politics. This reassured markets about Fed independence, stabilizing expectations and influencing prices for rate outcomes around 3.25% and 3.0%.

Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenas are pretext to force rate cuts

Powell released a video statement accusing the Justice Department of using criminal subpoenas to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing concerns about political interference and increasing expectations of further rate reductions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 81%13%

In early 2026, the Fed opted to keep interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting mixed economic signals including steady employment and cooling inflation. The decision indicated a pause in rate cuts as officials awaited clearer data, contributing to a decline in market expectations for further easing.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair candidate

↓ 2.75% drops to 45%10%

President Trump announced former Fed official Kevin Warsh as his preferred nominee to replace Powell, raising concerns that the new chair would push for lower rates under political pressure, briefly lifting lower‑rate odds.

Fed cuts rates for the third time in 2025, lowering the target to about 3.6%

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

A third consecutive quarter‑point cut was announced, reinforcing expectations of further easing and pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts higher.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate to 3.6%, revealing divisions among officials

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

In its December 2025 meeting, the Fed cut the key interest rate by a quarter point to 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, highlighting internal disagreements among officials about the pace and extent of easing amid economic challenges.

Federal government shutdown delays data releases

↓ 2.5% drops to 45%7%

A six‑week shutdown postponed key labor and inflation data, creating uncertainty that weighed on market expectations for further rate reductions.

Federal Reserve interest rate cut reveals divisions among officials

The Fed's December 2025 rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% was approved by a 9-3 vote, revealing internal disagreements among officials about the pace and extent of easing amid economic challenges and inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve releases minutes confirming cautious approach after December rate cut

The minutes from the December 9-10, 2025 FOMC meeting revealed internal divisions with some members dissenting on the pace of cuts, highlighting the Fed's cautious stance balancing inflation and labor market weakness.

Release of December 2025 FOMC meeting minutes reveals cautious Fed outlook

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

The Federal Reserve published minutes from its December 9-10, 2025 meeting, providing insights into the Committee's deliberations and signaling a data-dependent approach with a cautious stance on further rate cuts in 2026. This transparency influenced market expectations and price movements.

Federal Reserve releases December 2025 FOMC meeting minutes

On December 30, 2025, the Fed published minutes from its December 9-10 meeting, providing insights into the decision to cut rates and signaling a cautious outlook for future policy amid economic uncertainties.

Federal Reserve releases minutes from December 2025 FOMC meeting

The minutes revealed ongoing internal debate about the pace of rate cuts and concerns about inflation and labor market stability, influencing market expectations for future Fed actions.

FOMC minutes show wait-and-see approach to future rate cuts

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%27%

The minutes showed the FOMC took a wait-and-see approach, with some officials wanting to keep rates on hold due to stalled inflation progress. This contributed to the market's price decline for rate-cut options.

Fed minutes reveal split over further cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%11%

Minutes from the December meeting showed that several officials wanted more inflation progress before additional cuts, reinforcing market belief that the rate‑cut cycle may be ending.

Fed announces quarter‑point rate cut to 3.6% at December meeting

↓ 2.5% plunges to 57%32%

The Fed officially cut its key rate by a quarter point, confirming market expectations of lower rates and driving down prices for all downward‑rate outcomes.

Core CPI rises to 2.8% in November

↓ 2.75% drops to 47%8%

The Commerce Department reported core consumer‑price inflation at 2.8% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky and reducing pressure for aggressive cuts.

Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts to boost labor market

↓ 3.0% dips to 68%4%

December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite the Fed's recent rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data complicated the Fed's policy outlook and influenced market expectations for future rate moves.

Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.0% plunges to 60%22%

The DOJ announced it would cease its criminal probe into Chairman Powell, removing a major source of political pressure and reducing expectations of emergency rate cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points

↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%7%

The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive 25-basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This move followed easing labor market conditions and inflation remaining above target, signaling a cautious approach to monetary easing. The decision influenced market expectations, initially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts to around 3.25%.

FOMC meeting confirms rate cut amid inflation moderation and labor market caution

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting confirmed a widely expected 25-basis point rate cut, reflecting signs of moderating inflation and a cautious labor market. The Fed signaled a more measured approach to future cuts, with projections suggesting rates settling between 3.5% and 4% by year-end 2025.

FOMC meeting signals cautious approach to 2026 rate cuts

The December meeting highlighted divisions within the FOMC, with nine voting members supporting a cut and two holding rates steady. The cautious tone and uncertainty about future cuts influenced market pricing for all rate decline options.

FOMC meeting signals December rate cut likely

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

The FOMC meeting on December 18 was widely anticipated to result in a 25-basis point rate cut, with market pricing at 95% likelihood. This decision was based on November jobs and inflation data showing moderation, leading to significant price drops for all down-market outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75% amid weakening labor market

↓ 3.25% dips to 87%1%

In December 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate reduction in 2025. The decision was driven by signs of labor market weakening and the Fed's effort to balance inflation concerns with economic support, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

Inflation data shows cooling trend

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

November inflation data showed the annual rate cooling to 3.1%, down from 3.2%, with core inflation at 4%. This moderation supported the FOMC's decision to cut rates, as inflation was no longer a primary risk factor.

November jobs report shows slight uptick in unemployment

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%68%

The November jobs report showed the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7%, with 199,000 jobs added. This labor market softening supported the FOMC's rate cut decision, as downside risks to employment increased.

Fed minutes reveal split over further cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 82%7%

Minutes from the December meeting showed two officials voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a larger half‑point cut, highlighting uncertainty about additional easing and dampening expectations for further declines.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.75% jumps to 55%9%

The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, increasing speculation that a Trump‑friendly chair could lower rates sharply.

Federal Reserve cuts upper bound of target range to 3.75%

The Fed cut the upper bound of its target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%, continuing its cautious easing amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.50%–3.75% in December meeting

↓ 3.25% rises to 94%4%

The Fed lowered the target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025 as inflation remained above target and economic growth showed signs of slowing.

Federal Reserve cuts main rate to 3.5%-3.75% range, signaling cautious 2026 outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 8%82%

In December 2025, the Fed cut rates for the third time that year to 3.5%–3.75%, reflecting concerns about labor market weakness and persistent inflation. The Fed projected only one more quarter-point cut in 2026, indicating a more cautious and data-dependent approach to future policy.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate in 9-3 vote, signals cautious outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%

The Fed cut its key interest rate for the third consecutive time in 2025, with a 9-3 vote, but indicated only one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027. The decision reflected internal committee divisions and a focus on balancing inflation control with economic growth.

Federal Reserve cuts primary credit rate to 3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Board of Governors approved a 0.25 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 3.75%, effective December 11, 2025. This was part of a series of cuts in late 2025 to support economic activity amid cooling labor market conditions and projected inflation decline.

Federal Reserve cuts rates for third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook for 2026

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%6%

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. The decision was split 9-3, reflecting divisions within the committee. The Fed's dot plot indicated only one more cut in 2026, signaling a more cautious approach amid elevated inflation and improving economic growth forecasts.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate to 3.50%-3.75% amid economic concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 85%3%

The Fed implemented its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This move reflected concerns about slowing labor market conditions despite inflation remaining above target, signaling a cautious easing approach.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid divided committee

↓ 3.0% surges to 84%16%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This reflected uncertainty about inflation and labor market conditions, influencing market pricing of future rate moves.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point at December meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 70%20%

The Federal Reserve voted 9‑3 to cut its benchmark rate by 0.25%, the third cut of the year, signaling willingness to lower rates despite inflation concerns, which boosted odds of lower‑rate outcomes.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point at December meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to about 3.6%, the first cut of the year, signaling a move toward lower rates and prompting market participants to price in a higher chance of the lower‑rate outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts rate to 3.50%-3.75%, reveals internal divisions

In December 2025, the Fed cut rates again to 3.50%-3.75%, the third cut that year, with a 9-3 vote showing significant dissent among officials. This reflected ongoing debates about monetary policy amid weak hiring and persistent inflation.

Fed cuts rates amid government data delays and economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%2%

The Fed's December 2025 rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% was influenced by limited government data availability due to a shutdown, complicating economic assessment. Despite inflation remaining above target, the Fed prioritized supporting the labor market amid signs of slowing job growth.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for third consecutive time to 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% surges to 88%37%

The Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid concerns about a weakening labor market and persistent inflation. This move aimed to support economic growth while balancing inflation risks.

Fed cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid divided officials

↓ 3.25% jumps to 88%6%

At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and some officials dissenting. This highlighted the committee's split between concerns over weak hiring and elevated inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts rates for third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook

↓ 2.5% plunges to 34%17%

The Fed cut rates to 3.5%–3.75% after three consecutive cuts in late 2025, aiming to balance inflation control with labor market support. The move was accompanied by a cautious, data-dependent stance amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic expansion

↓ 3.25% dips to 88%1%

In Jerome Powell's likely final meeting as Chair, the FOMC kept rates steady, noting solid economic activity and low job gains. This decision tempered expectations for further cuts, causing a slight decline in the probability of rate cuts to 3.25% and 3.0%.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.5%-3.75% in December meeting

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%9%

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. The decision came despite some dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, with the Fed signaling a cautious approach to future cuts amid economic uncertainty and a stabilizing labor market.

Federal Reserve cuts rates third time in 2025 to 3.50%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut rates again by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about labor market weakness despite inflation remaining above target, with some dissent among members signaling uncertainty about future cuts.

FOMC cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 27%56%

The FOMC lowered the target rate range following economic data showing moderate expansion, slowing job gains, and inflation above target. The decision marked the third consecutive rate cut, significantly impacting market pricing for all rate decline outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% plunges to 21%62%

The FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December, marking the third consecutive rate cut. This move was driven by moderating inflation and a slightly weakening labor market, significantly affecting all down-market outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts main rate to 3.5%-3.75% range, signals cautious 2026 outlook

↓ 3.25% dips to 87%1%

In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range, the third cut in 2025, amid concerns about a weakening job market and persistent inflation. The decision was split with three dissenters, and the Fed projected only one more cut in 2026, tempering market expectations for aggressive easing.

Fed cuts interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, lowering it to about 3.6%, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation. The decision was marked by notable dissent, highlighting uncertainty within the Fed about the appropriate policy path.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 0.25% for third time in 2025

↓ 3.25% dips to 87%1%

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025 amid slowing economic conditions and moderating inflation. Chair Powell emphasized uncertainty ahead, influencing market expectations for future rate moves.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for third straight time amid labor market concerns

↑ 4.25% plunges to 25%25%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid concerns about slowing labor market despite inflation remaining above target.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 4.25% after three cuts in 2025

↑ 4.25% drops to 14%10%

At the final FOMC meeting of 2025, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.00%-4.25%, signaling a cautious outlook for 2026 with expectations of one more cut. This pause reflected balancing inflation concerns with economic growth prospects.

Fed cuts rates by a quarter point amid internal dissent

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%12%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to about 3.6%, the first cut since September. The close vote and dissent signaled uncertainty, prompting traders to lower expectations for further cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.50%-3.75%, third cut in 2025

↓ 2.5% plunges to 4%47%

The Fed cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third reduction in 2025 amid a cooling labor market and persistent inflation. This move reflected a more accommodative stance while maintaining caution about inflation risks.

US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in final decision of the year

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut in 2025, responding to a softening labor market while remaining cautious about inflation risks.

FOMC cuts rate to 3.5%-3.75% with 9-3 vote and reserve management purchases

↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to lower the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran voting no and preferring a 50-basis-point cut. The decision to begin reserve management purchases added policy uncertainty.

Fed minutes reveal a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point rate cut to about 3.6%

↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%9%

The released minutes from the Dec 9‑10 FOMC meeting showed a narrow majority supporting a cut, signaling a higher probability of lower rates and boosting the "↓ 3.25%" contract.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%5%

In December 2025, the Fed delivered its third rate cut of the year, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. The decision was marked by internal divisions among officials, with some dissenting votes reflecting uncertainty about the pace of future cuts. This move was widely anticipated and signaled a cautious easing approach amid mixed economic signals.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point in December meeting

↓ 3.25% plunges to 70%20%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to cut the target federal funds rate by 0.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years, signaling a move toward lower rates and boosting the probability of a 3.25% lower bound being hit.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation investigation

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Fed, intensifying political pressure on the central bank and prompting market participants to anticipate a more dovish stance to protect the Fed’s independence.

Consumer prices tick up in November as Americans keep spending

↓ 3.0% drops to 67%5%

November 2025 data showed inflation slightly rising to 2.8% year-over-year and consumer spending increasing, indicating a solid economy. This reduced market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, lowering probabilities for outcomes like ↓3.0% and ↓2.75%.

Trump administration escalates pressure on Federal Reserve with DOJ subpoenas

↓ 3.25% jumps to 82%13%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed over testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation, marking an unprecedented escalation in political pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. This heightened uncertainty about Fed independence and future rate decisions, impacting market expectations for rate cuts.

Fed minutes show divided views on next rate steps

↓ 3.25% surges to 89%38%

The minutes revealed that those who preferred to keep rates on hold expressed concern that progress toward the 2% inflation objective had stalled, while others wanted to cut rates. This contributed to the market's price volatility.

Fed officials signal possible rate cut in upcoming December meeting

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Fed's November meeting indicated a close vote on a quarter‑point cut, raising expectations that the target rate could fall to around 3.6%, which boosted bets on lower rate outcomes.

November inflation data shows prices tick up amid strong consumer spending

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October, with solid consumer spending growth. This indicated persistent inflationary pressures, reducing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and causing market prices for lower rate outcomes to decline.

Federal Reserve releases October 2025 FOMC meeting minutes

The minutes revealed the Fed's cautious stance amid inflation and economic uncertainties, providing market participants with insights into the committee's deliberations and influencing expectations for future rate moves.

Consumer prices tick up in November, signaling persistent inflation

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November 2025, slightly higher than October, with solid consumer spending growth. This data suggested inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent Fed rate cuts and supporting higher rates.

FOMC releases October 2025 meeting minutes revealing cautious tone

↑ 4.25% plunges to 27%23%

The October 2025 FOMC minutes, released in November, showed the committee's cautious approach amid inflation above target and economic uncertainty. The tone influenced market expectations by signaling a possible pause or modest cuts rather than aggressive easing.

Consumer spending and inflation data show persistent economic strength

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

November 2025 data revealed that consumer prices and spending remained robust, with inflation slightly rising and consumer spending climbing, signaling a strong economy. This reduced expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts, causing prices for larger cuts to drop.

FOMC minutes from October 28-29, 2025 reveal cautious Fed stance

The minutes released on November 19, 2025, from the October FOMC meeting showed the Fed's cautious approach amid inflation above target and labor market softness, reinforcing expectations for gradual rate cuts rather than aggressive easing.

FOMC minutes reveal divided views on December rate cut

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The FOMC voted 10-2 to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% to the 3.75%-4.00% range, with dissenters split between tighter and looser policy. This division highlighted uncertainty about future rate moves, initially supporting market expectations for a cut to around 3.25%.

FOMC votes 10-2 to cut rates to 3.75%-4.00% with split dissents

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, with two dissents split between tighter and looser policy, signaling division on future cuts. This caused significant price swings across rate-cut options.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

President Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and increased political influence. This nomination raised market uncertainty about future rate decisions, impacting probabilities for various rate levels.

Mortgage rates near 2025 low as Fed cuts anticipated

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Mortgage rates eased to 6.15% as the Fed began rate cuts in September, signaling lower borrowing costs and influencing market expectations for further cuts.

Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran resigns from White House Council of Economic Advisers

Stephen Miran stepped down from his White House post while remaining on the Fed board, ending a controversial dual role. This highlighted political tensions around Fed independence and influenced market expectations about Fed policy continuity and rate decisions.

Fed officials signal divided views on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a split among officials, with some favoring additional rate cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market. This division contributed to fluctuating market expectations for rate cuts at various levels.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and market uncertainty about future interest rate decisions. This nomination raised questions about the Fed's independence and the likelihood of rate cuts, impacting market pricing for lower rate outcomes.

Trump nominates Stephen Miran to Federal Reserve Board amid controversy

↓ 3.25% surges to 69%18%

President Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors while he simultaneously held a White House position, an unusual arrangement that raised questions about Fed independence. Miran pledged to resign from the White House post if he remained on the Fed board, highlighting tensions around Fed governance and potential impacts on rate decisions.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in November 2025

↓ 3.25% surges to 88%37%

The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 amid ongoing inflation and a weakening labor market. This move lowered market expectations for higher rates and influenced the price drop in higher rate options.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair

↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%

President Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy and market expectations about interest rate decisions. This nomination raised questions about the Fed's independence and the likelihood of rate cuts or hikes, impacting market pricing on Fed rate outcomes.

November 2025 US jobs report shows rising unemployment to 4.6% and slow job growth

↓ 3.25% rises to 90%1%

The November jobs report revealed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, with only modest job gains. This data confirmed labor market softness, supporting the Fed's cautious stance and expectations for limited further rate cuts.