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icon for Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?
Politik·Fed Rates

Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?

icon for Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?
Politik·Fed Rates

Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?

4,0 % 37.5%

3,75 % 25.1%

4,25 % 21.1%

3,5 % 8.0%

Polymarket

$6,792,293 Vol.

4,0 % 37.5%

3,75 % 25.1%

4,25 % 21.1%

3,5 % 8.0%

Polymarket

$6,792,293 Vol.

≤1,0 %

$251,040 Vol.

1%

1,25

$149,727 Vol.

1%

1,5 %

$147,131 Vol.

<1%

1,75 %

$149,658 Vol.

<1%

2,0 %

$264,962 Vol.

<1%

2,25 %

$88,761 Vol.

<1%

2,5 %

$175,601 Vol.

1%

2,75 %

$62,132 Vol.

1%

3,0 %

$489,577 Vol.

<1%

3,25 %

$66,956 Vol.

1%

3,5 %

$203,365 Vol.

8%

3,75 %

$532,881 Vol.

25%

4,0 %

$1,370,637 Vol.

38%

4,25 %

$430,741 Vol.

21%

≥ 4,5 %

$2,409,123 Vol.

5%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks including elevated energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady in the 3.5–3.75% range after the July FOMC meeting and supported trader pricing clustered around 4.0% for year-end 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish tone and removal of prior easing guidance. Mixed August data—cooling core readings alongside stable unemployment near 4.2% and moderate job gains—have tempered September hike odds while leaving room for the 3.75–4.25% outcomes that dominate current market-implied probabilities. Geopolitical uncertainty and resilient growth continue to anchor expectations for policy remaining higher for longer through the final FOMC meetings of the year.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,792,293
Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks including elevated energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady in the 3.5–3.75% range after the July FOMC meeting and supported trader pricing clustered around 4.0% for year-end 2026. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8%, reflecting nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year under new Chair Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish tone and removal of prior easing guidance. Mixed August data—cooling core readings alongside stable unemployment near 4.2% and moderate job gains—have tempered September hike odds while leaving room for the 3.75–4.25% outcomes that dominate current market-implied probabilities. Geopolitical uncertainty and resilient growth continue to anchor expectations for policy remaining higher for longer through the final FOMC meetings of the year.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,792,293
Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Verwandte

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

49%
icon for Wird die Fed nach dem Treffen im September 2026 den Leitzins um 25 Basispunkte anheben?

Wird die Fed nach dem Treffen im September 2026 den Leitzins um 25 Basispunkte anheben?

56%
Ja
icon for Wird es nach der Sitzung im Oktober 2026 keine Änderung der Fed-Zinssätze geben?

Wird es nach der Sitzung im Oktober 2026 keine Änderung der Fed-Zinssätze geben?

71%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 15 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „4,0 %" mit 38%, gefolgt von „3,75 %" mit 25%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 38¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $6.8 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 12, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie hoch wird der Fed-Zinssatz Ende 2026 sein?" ist „4,0 %" mit 38%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 38% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „3,75 %" mit 25%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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