Elevated inflation pressures, driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline measures above 3.7%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has adopted a more data-dependent, hawkish tilt, prompting markets to price in potential 25-basis-point hikes amid resilient labor conditions and unemployment near 4.1%. The closely matched probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 30.5% versus Hike-Pause-Pause at 22%—reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will justify tightening or support holds, with the September 15-16 SEP meeting and subsequent releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 31%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 22%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
22%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
31%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
4%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
7%
Sonstiges
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 22%
Hike–Hike–Pause 14%
Hike–Pause–Hike 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
10%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
$499 Vol.
22%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
$216 Vol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
14%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
$468 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$10,920 Vol.
31%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
$237 Vol.
4%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
$336 Vol.
7%
Sonstiges
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline measures above 3.7%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has adopted a more data-dependent, hawkish tilt, prompting markets to price in potential 25-basis-point hikes amid resilient labor conditions and unemployment near 4.1%. The closely matched probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 30.5% versus Hike-Pause-Pause at 22%—reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will justify tightening or support holds, with the September 15-16 SEP meeting and subsequent releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$13,668Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline measures above 3.7%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has adopted a more data-dependent, hawkish tilt, prompting markets to price in potential 25-basis-point hikes amid resilient labor conditions and unemployment near 4.1%. The closely matched probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 30.5% versus Hike-Pause-Pause at 22%—reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will justify tightening or support holds, with the September 15-16 SEP meeting and subsequent releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$13,668Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures, driven by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline measures above 3.7%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has adopted a more data-dependent, hawkish tilt, prompting markets to price in potential 25-basis-point hikes amid resilient labor conditions and unemployment near 4.1%. The closely matched probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 30.5% versus Hike-Pause-Pause at 22%—reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will justify tightening or support holds, with the September 15-16 SEP meeting and subsequent releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen