**NATO has not invoked Article 5 since 2001, and no armed attack on alliance territory has occurred in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict or related hybrid incidents.** Recent developments include the July 2026 Ankara summit, where members reaffirmed an "ironclad commitment" to collective defense under Article 5 while pledging €70 billion in military support for Ukraine through 2027. U.S. intelligence assessments note a low near-term risk of direct Russian conventional action against NATO members, though hybrid probes such as sabotage or limited incursions remain possible through 2029. Ongoing drone and cyber incidents, including an alleged Russian-linked event at Leipzig airport in August 2026, have prompted consultations but not crossed the threshold for invocation. With only months remaining until 2027 and Russia focused on Ukraine operations, traders see little basis for activation in the resolution window.