Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent Tocantins Senate polling for one of the two seats up in the October 4, 2026, election, where voters select two candidates. September surveys from institutes including Veritá and Real Time Big Data placed him at 25–43% of valid votes, well ahead of the fragmented field, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) trails as the primary challenger. This positioning drives the elevated market price for Gomes as first place, reflecting incumbency advantages, party backing, and stable voter preferences in the final weeks. The second seat remains more competitive among names like Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), contributing to lower implied probabilities for any single alternative amid high undecided shares and vote-splitting dynamics. No major late shifts have altered this structure in the past month.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEduardo Gomes 81%
Alexandre Guimarães 15.1%
Gaguim 1.0%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$27,167 Vol.
$27,167 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Eduardo Gomes
81%
Alexandre Guimarães
15%
Gaguim
1%
Paulo Mourão
1%
Eli Borges
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 81%
Alexandre Guimarães 15.1%
Gaguim 1.0%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$27,167 Vol.
$27,167 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Eduardo Gomes
$15,769 Vol.
81%
Alexandre Guimarães
$2,431 Vol.
15%
Gaguim
$1,517 Vol.
1%
Paulo Mourão
$774 Vol.
1%
Eli Borges
$699 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$819 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$701 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$769 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$762 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$769 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$554 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$791 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$811 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent Tocantins Senate polling for one of the two seats up in the October 4, 2026, election, where voters select two candidates. September surveys from institutes including Veritá and Real Time Big Data placed him at 25–43% of valid votes, well ahead of the fragmented field, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) trails as the primary challenger. This positioning drives the elevated market price for Gomes as first place, reflecting incumbency advantages, party backing, and stable voter preferences in the final weeks. The second seat remains more competitive among names like Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), contributing to lower implied probabilities for any single alternative amid high undecided shares and vote-splitting dynamics. No major late shifts have altered this structure in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volumen
$27,167Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent Tocantins Senate polling for one of the two seats up in the October 4, 2026, election, where voters select two candidates. September surveys from institutes including Veritá and Real Time Big Data placed him at 25–43% of valid votes, well ahead of the fragmented field, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) trails as the primary challenger. This positioning drives the elevated market price for Gomes as first place, reflecting incumbency advantages, party backing, and stable voter preferences in the final weeks. The second seat remains more competitive among names like Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), contributing to lower implied probabilities for any single alternative amid high undecided shares and vote-splitting dynamics. No major late shifts have altered this structure in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$27,167Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, holds a clear lead in recent Tocantins Senate polling for one of the two seats up in the October 4, 2026, election, where voters select two candidates. September surveys from institutes including Veritá and Real Time Big Data placed him at 25–43% of valid votes, well ahead of the fragmented field, while Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) trails as the primary challenger. This positioning drives the elevated market price for Gomes as first place, reflecting incumbency advantages, party backing, and stable voter preferences in the final weeks. The second seat remains more competitive among names like Gaguim (União), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos), contributing to lower implied probabilities for any single alternative amid high undecided shares and vote-splitting dynamics. No major late shifts have altered this structure in the past month.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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