China's highly centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive surveillance, purges of potential rivals, and mechanisms ensuring People's Liberation Army loyalty, contributing to trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. No verified high-level military dissent or institutional fractures have emerged in recent months to challenge this stability. Historical patterns since 1949 show rare successful challenges to sitting leadership, reinforced by ongoing anti-corruption campaigns and information controls. While improbable, factors that could shift odds include sudden leadership health crises, severe economic downturns triggering elite fractures, or major foreign policy reversals exposing internal weaknesses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
4% probabilidad
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's highly centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive surveillance, purges of potential rivals, and mechanisms ensuring People's Liberation Army loyalty, contributing to trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. No verified high-level military dissent or institutional fractures have emerged in recent months to challenge this stability. Historical patterns since 1949 show rare successful challenges to sitting leadership, reinforced by ongoing anti-corruption campaigns and information controls. While improbable, factors that could shift odds include sudden leadership health crises, severe economic downturns triggering elite fractures, or major foreign policy reversals exposing internal weaknesses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$155,515Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's highly centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive surveillance, purges of potential rivals, and mechanisms ensuring People's Liberation Army loyalty, contributing to trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. No verified high-level military dissent or institutional fractures have emerged in recent months to challenge this stability. Historical patterns since 1949 show rare successful challenges to sitting leadership, reinforced by ongoing anti-corruption campaigns and information controls. While improbable, factors that could shift odds include sudden leadership health crises, severe economic downturns triggering elite fractures, or major foreign policy reversals exposing internal weaknesses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$155,515Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's highly centralized political system under Xi Jinping features extensive surveillance, purges of potential rivals, and mechanisms ensuring People's Liberation Army loyalty, contributing to trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. No verified high-level military dissent or institutional fractures have emerged in recent months to challenge this stability. Historical patterns since 1949 show rare successful challenges to sitting leadership, reinforced by ongoing anti-corruption campaigns and information controls. While improbable, factors that could shift odds include sudden leadership health crises, severe economic downturns triggering elite fractures, or major foreign policy reversals exposing internal weaknesses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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