Joseph Morelle’s commanding position in the NY-25 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and strong primary performance against intra-party challengers in June 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment or campaign dynamics. Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator and first-time general-election candidate, faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the incumbent incorporates these baseline factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a national partisan wave, late-breaking controversy, or unusual turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-25
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-25
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joseph Morelle’s commanding position in the NY-25 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and strong primary performance against intra-party challengers in June 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment or campaign dynamics. Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator and first-time general-election candidate, faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the incumbent incorporates these baseline factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a national partisan wave, late-breaking controversy, or unusual turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$33,113Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Joseph Morelle’s commanding position in the NY-25 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and strong primary performance against intra-party challengers in June 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment or campaign dynamics. Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator and first-time general-election candidate, faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the incumbent incorporates these baseline factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a national partisan wave, late-breaking controversy, or unusual turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,113Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Joseph Morelle’s commanding position in the NY-25 House race stems from the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area, his incumbency since 2018, and strong primary performance against intra-party challengers in June 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting historical margins and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment or campaign dynamics. Virginia McIntyre, a Monroe County legislator and first-time general-election candidate, faces structural headwinds including limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the incumbent incorporates these baseline factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a national partisan wave, late-breaking controversy, or unusual turnout patterns before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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