Humberto Costa and Mendonça Filho remain the leading contenders for second place in Pernambuco’s Senate race, with their implied probabilities nearly even as recent polling shows them separated by small margins within sampling error. Marília Arraes consistently leads overall vote intention in consolidated first-and-second-choice scenarios, leaving the second seat contested primarily between the incumbent PT senator and the PL deputy. The latest Quaest survey from early September placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça Filho at 11 percent, while an earlier Real Time Big Data poll showed Mendonça Filho slightly ahead of Costa in some simulations. Voter indecision remains high, alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest continue to influence positioning, and the October 4 election date leaves limited time for late shifts in turnout or coalition dynamics to alter the current ordering.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHumberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 3.0%
$31,094 Vol.
$31,094 Vol.
Humberto Costa
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Marília Arraes
13%
Túlio Gadêlha
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 13.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 3.0%
$31,094 Vol.
$31,094 Vol.
Humberto Costa
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Marília Arraes
13%
Túlio Gadêlha
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Humberto Costa and Mendonça Filho remain the leading contenders for second place in Pernambuco’s Senate race, with their implied probabilities nearly even as recent polling shows them separated by small margins within sampling error. Marília Arraes consistently leads overall vote intention in consolidated first-and-second-choice scenarios, leaving the second seat contested primarily between the incumbent PT senator and the PL deputy. The latest Quaest survey from early September placed Arraes at 17 percent, Costa at 14 percent, and Mendonça Filho at 11 percent, while an earlier Real Time Big Data poll showed Mendonça Filho slightly ahead of Costa in some simulations. Voter indecision remains high, alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial contest continue to influence positioning, and the October 4 election date leaves limited time for late shifts in turnout or coalition dynamics to alter the current ordering.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes