Google's leading 67.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus around Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash as the strongest all-round text-to-video performers, driven by native audio with lip-sync, up to 4K output, superior prompt adherence, and seamless Gemini ecosystem integration that reduces retries for cinematic results. Multiple mid-2026 arena rankings and independent tests positioned these models ahead on production metrics, while OpenAI's Sora 2 discontinuation (app closed, API sunset September 2026) and API-only status crushed its odds to 0.1%. Chinese entrants like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 hold competitive Elo scores in image-to-video or value categories but trail on consistent all-rounder benchmarks and accessibility, keeping their probabilities lower. Key near-term catalysts include any October model updates or benchmark shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGoogle 68%
ByteDance 31%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 1.9%
KlingAI <1%
$32,778 Vol.
$32,778 Vol.
31 oct 2026
68%
ByteDance
31%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
2%
KlingAI
1%
Pixverse
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Meta
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
Runway
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Google 68%
ByteDance 31%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 1.9%
KlingAI <1%
$32,778 Vol.
$32,778 Vol.
31 oct 2026
$23,320 Vol.
68%
ByteDance
$3,371 Vol.
31%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$678 Vol.
2%
KlingAI
$523 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$350 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$391 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$396 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$375 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$345 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$296 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$443 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$376 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$371 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$414 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$387 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$372 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$373 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 67.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus around Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash as the strongest all-round text-to-video performers, driven by native audio with lip-sync, up to 4K output, superior prompt adherence, and seamless Gemini ecosystem integration that reduces retries for cinematic results. Multiple mid-2026 arena rankings and independent tests positioned these models ahead on production metrics, while OpenAI's Sora 2 discontinuation (app closed, API sunset September 2026) and API-only status crushed its odds to 0.1%. Chinese entrants like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 hold competitive Elo scores in image-to-video or value categories but trail on consistent all-rounder benchmarks and accessibility, keeping their probabilities lower. Key near-term catalysts include any October model updates or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volumen
$32,778Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 67.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus around Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash as the strongest all-round text-to-video performers, driven by native audio with lip-sync, up to 4K output, superior prompt adherence, and seamless Gemini ecosystem integration that reduces retries for cinematic results. Multiple mid-2026 arena rankings and independent tests positioned these models ahead on production metrics, while OpenAI's Sora 2 discontinuation (app closed, API sunset September 2026) and API-only status crushed its odds to 0.1%. Chinese entrants like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 hold competitive Elo scores in image-to-video or value categories but trail on consistent all-rounder benchmarks and accessibility, keeping their probabilities lower. Key near-term catalysts include any October model updates or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$32,778Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's leading 67.5% implied probability reflects trader consensus around Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash as the strongest all-round text-to-video performers, driven by native audio with lip-sync, up to 4K output, superior prompt adherence, and seamless Gemini ecosystem integration that reduces retries for cinematic results. Multiple mid-2026 arena rankings and independent tests positioned these models ahead on production metrics, while OpenAI's Sora 2 discontinuation (app closed, API sunset September 2026) and API-only status crushed its odds to 0.1%. Chinese entrants like ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 hold competitive Elo scores in image-to-video or value categories but trail on consistent all-rounder benchmarks and accessibility, keeping their probabilities lower. Key near-term catalysts include any October model updates or benchmark shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes