**Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026.** Continuous monitoring through the JPL Fireball and Bolide repository and Sentry system shows only tiny objects (under 10 meters) on predicted paths, which typically disintegrate harmlessly. Historical data indicate events exceeding 100 kt occur roughly once every 15–20 years on average, yielding a low single-digit annual probability. This statistical baseline, reinforced by the absence of any catalogued threats, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for “No.” While an undetected small meteoroid on a direct trajectory remains theoretically possible, refined surveys and the short remaining timeframe make such an outcome highly improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026.** Continuous monitoring through the JPL Fireball and Bolide repository and Sentry system shows only tiny objects (under 10 meters) on predicted paths, which typically disintegrate harmlessly. Historical data indicate events exceeding 100 kt occur roughly once every 15–20 years on average, yielding a low single-digit annual probability. This statistical baseline, reinforced by the absence of any catalogued threats, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for “No.” While an undetected small meteoroid on a direct trajectory remains theoretically possible, refined surveys and the short remaining timeframe make such an outcome highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026.** Continuous monitoring through the JPL Fireball and Bolide repository and Sentry system shows only tiny objects (under 10 meters) on predicted paths, which typically disintegrate harmlessly. Historical data indicate events exceeding 100 kt occur roughly once every 15–20 years on average, yielding a low single-digit annual probability. This statistical baseline, reinforced by the absence of any catalogued threats, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for “No.” While an undetected small meteoroid on a direct trajectory remains theoretically possible, refined surveys and the short remaining timeframe make such an outcome highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys have identified no asteroids large enough to produce a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026.** Continuous monitoring through the JPL Fireball and Bolide repository and Sentry system shows only tiny objects (under 10 meters) on predicted paths, which typically disintegrate harmlessly. Historical data indicate events exceeding 100 kt occur roughly once every 15–20 years on average, yielding a low single-digit annual probability. This statistical baseline, reinforced by the absence of any catalogued threats, underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for “No.” While an undetected small meteoroid on a direct trajectory remains theoretically possible, refined surveys and the short remaining timeframe make such an outcome highly improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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