**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 74.5% reflects established impact frequencies and the absence of detected threats.** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and infrasound networks show that bolides releasing 5 kilotons or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur only once every several years globally, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood on base rates alone. Current Sentry risk assessments and ESA monitoring list no near-Earth objects with meaningful 2026 impact probabilities capable of reaching that energy threshold, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4) involved meter-scale objects far below the required size. Ongoing wide-field surveys continue to refine orbits, with resolution depending on whether any undetected object produces a confirmed airburst meeting the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% chance
$313,766 Vol.
$313,766 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
26% chance
$313,766 Vol.
$313,766 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 74.5% reflects established impact frequencies and the absence of detected threats.** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and infrasound networks show that bolides releasing 5 kilotons or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur only once every several years globally, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood on base rates alone. Current Sentry risk assessments and ESA monitoring list no near-Earth objects with meaningful 2026 impact probabilities capable of reaching that energy threshold, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4) involved meter-scale objects far below the required size. Ongoing wide-field surveys continue to refine orbits, with resolution depending on whether any undetected object produces a confirmed airburst meeting the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,766End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 74.5% reflects established impact frequencies and the absence of detected threats.** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and infrasound networks show that bolides releasing 5 kilotons or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur only once every several years globally, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood on base rates alone. Current Sentry risk assessments and ESA monitoring list no near-Earth objects with meaningful 2026 impact probabilities capable of reaching that energy threshold, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4) involved meter-scale objects far below the required size. Ongoing wide-field surveys continue to refine orbits, with resolution depending on whether any undetected object produces a confirmed airburst meeting the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,766End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 74.5% reflects established impact frequencies and the absence of detected threats.** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and infrasound networks show that bolides releasing 5 kilotons or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur only once every several years globally, placing any single calendar year well below 30% likelihood on base rates alone. Current Sentry risk assessments and ESA monitoring list no near-Earth objects with meaningful 2026 impact probabilities capable of reaching that energy threshold, while recent small predicted impacts (such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4) involved meter-scale objects far below the required size. Ongoing wide-field surveys continue to refine orbits, with resolution depending on whether any undetected object produces a confirmed airburst meeting the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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