Ongoing NEO surveillance by NASA’s Sentry system and ESA risk lists shows no known asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026, with all catalogued objects either missing Earth by wide margins or too small to reach that energy threshold. Continuous sky surveys have detected only sub-meter to few-meter objects this year, all producing harmless airbursts far below market criteria. With three-quarters of the year elapsed without incident and refined orbits eliminating prior low-probability candidates, trader consensus reflects the low background rate of such events. An undetected long-period comet or sudden orbital shift from an untracked body remains possible but statistically remote given expanding coverage from facilities like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
10% chance
$206,915 Vol.
$206,915 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
10% chance
$206,915 Vol.
$206,915 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NEO surveillance by NASA’s Sentry system and ESA risk lists shows no known asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026, with all catalogued objects either missing Earth by wide margins or too small to reach that energy threshold. Continuous sky surveys have detected only sub-meter to few-meter objects this year, all producing harmless airbursts far below market criteria. With three-quarters of the year elapsed without incident and refined orbits eliminating prior low-probability candidates, trader consensus reflects the low background rate of such events. An undetected long-period comet or sudden orbital shift from an untracked body remains possible but statistically remote given expanding coverage from facilities like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$206,915End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NEO surveillance by NASA’s Sentry system and ESA risk lists shows no known asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026, with all catalogued objects either missing Earth by wide margins or too small to reach that energy threshold. Continuous sky surveys have detected only sub-meter to few-meter objects this year, all producing harmless airbursts far below market criteria. With three-quarters of the year elapsed without incident and refined orbits eliminating prior low-probability candidates, trader consensus reflects the low background rate of such events. An undetected long-period comet or sudden orbital shift from an untracked body remains possible but statistically remote given expanding coverage from facilities like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$206,915End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NEO surveillance by NASA’s Sentry system and ESA risk lists shows no known asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026, with all catalogued objects either missing Earth by wide margins or too small to reach that energy threshold. Continuous sky surveys have detected only sub-meter to few-meter objects this year, all producing harmless airbursts far below market criteria. With three-quarters of the year elapsed without incident and refined orbits eliminating prior low-probability candidates, trader consensus reflects the low background rate of such events. An undetected long-period comet or sudden orbital shift from an untracked body remains possible but statistically remote given expanding coverage from facilities like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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